Data: BTC broke through in April and has remained above the short-term holder cost since then; a cycle bottom will eventually form.

ME News Report, May 18 (UTC+8), on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that the change in the relationship between cost basis and price behavior is one of the best perspectives for observing BTC forming a bottom structure, and the “short-term holder cost basis for 1-3 months” (1-3m_RP) is among the most effective reference indicators.
Each cycle of bear market bottom formation is accompanied by a process where the short-term holder cost basis (1-3m_RP, yellow line) gradually shifts. Taking previous cycles as examples: in 2015-2016, after BTC first broke through the short-term holder cost basis, it traded around it for a long period; in 2019-2020, BTC strongly broke through the short-term holder cost basis, followed by a small bull run; in 2022-2023, BTC broke through the short-term holder cost basis and then retested it twice, gaining support and rebounding again.
In this cycle, BTC broke through on April 15 and has remained above the short-term holder cost basis. But regardless of the future trend, a bottom will eventually form, BTC will break through the yellow line, and a reversal is inevitable.
Analysts believe that the important thing is not to predict specific trends but to prepare in advance and allocate positions reasonably. Past trends are only for illustration and are not investment advice. (Source: ChainCatcher)