Summary: Daily bearish arrangement, 4-hour low-level consolidation slightly weak, $2,200 is the short-term support/resistance dividing line; rebound faces mainly resistance, breaking below $2,160 targets $2,135–$2,100.
1. Current Price and Key Levels

• Current Price: $2,185 USD (24h +0.4%, Intraday $2,168–$2,195)

• Core Support (from near to far)

1. $2,180–$2,160: Intraday low + short-term dense buy orders

2. $2,135: Daily Bollinger lower band + last week’s low

3. $2,100–$2,080: Medium-term correction target zone

• Core Resistance (from near to far)

1. $2,200–$2,220: 4-hour moving average cluster + intraday strong resistance

2. $2,250–$2,300: Weekly oscillation platform upper boundary

3. $2,365: 100-day moving average, medium-term strong resistance
2. Cycle Structure (D1 + H4)

1) Daily (D1)

• Price below EMA15/30/60, moving averages are bearish arrangement, medium-term slightly bearish

• MACD: below zero line, green bars expanding, bearish momentum dominant

• RSI(14): 45, neutral leaning bearish, not oversold

• Bollinger Bands: opening downward, range $2,135–$2,304

• Conclusion: Weak consolidation after decline, rebound faces clear resistance

2) 4-hour (H4, key)

• Price below MA30, rebound suppressed by moving averages

• MACD: golden cross below zero line, weak red bars, limited rebound space

• RSI(14): 42, weak, no clear overbought or oversold signals

• Bollinger Bands: narrowing, range $2,160–$2,200, narrow oscillation

• Conclusion: Sideways at low levels, direction choice, $2,200 determines short-term strength or weakness
3. Capital and Sentiment

• Volume: shrinking over 24h, low volatility, cautious sentiment

• Open Interest (OI): stable, no large liquidation, bulls and bears in stalemate

• ETF Funds: net outflow of $255 million last week, institutional buying weak

• Macro correlation: BTC oscillates around 77–78K, slightly weak, linked downward pressure
4. Intraday Trading Strategy (5.18)

Main Strategy: Rebound Short (preferably)

• Entry: Short in batches on rebound at $2,200–$2,220 resistance

• Stop Loss: $2,250 (break above 4-hour moving average cluster)

• Targets: $2,160 → $2,135 → $2,100

Alternative Strategy: Low-level Long (defensive)

• Entry: Stabilize and buy on dip at $2,160–$2,170

• Stop Loss: $2,150

• Targets: $2,200 → $2,220

Observation Strategy

• When range-bound at $2,160–$2,200 with narrow oscillation, do not operate, wait for effective breakout
5. Key Risk Alerts

• Upward Breakout: Volume breakout above $2,250 and stabilization, bearish strategy invalidates, shifts to sideways or bullish

• Downward Breakdown: Effective fall below $2,135, opens downward space to $2,100–$2,080

• Macro Events: Federal Reserve officials’ speeches, inflation data may trigger large fluctuations
#加密市场下跌15万人爆仓 $ETH

ETH-2.92%

BTC-1.43%

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