This week also saw a decline. I’m also unwilling to play the depressed ghost again. The market structure this week is very clear: after the lack of strong momentum to push higher, there was a technical pullback. For Bitcoin’s breakout above 83,000, the effect was still short of that final push—just missing a crucial breath. From Monday to Thursday, the market moved within a box-range structure; only on Friday did it break the bottom support. Bitcoin’s lowest dip went down to around 77,600. As for Ethereum, this week it was mainly passive following, with weak independence; its lowest also tracked down to around the 2,160 line.

In terms of positioning this week, the results were rather bleak. In the earlier box-range consolidation phase, the focus was mainly on long positions. The long setups mainly centered around 80,600. Later, it was only after adjusting through additional entries (averaging down) that positions were finally “netted” (closed out). The positions held were relatively long-term; the subsequent netting focused mainly on short-term gains.

A setup with more notable points was on Thursday during the daytime session. After the market probed down to around 79,000, longs were placed following the trend in the morning. In the evening, as expected, Bitcoin stretched upward and secured a 2,000-point space; Ethereum captured 54 points of space.

On Friday, after the first round of netting longs around 82,000 following a probe toward the top near 82,000, the market broke down and probed lower. The longs on Bitcoin around 80,500 also incurred losses of nearly 1,000 points space, and Ethereum simultaneously took a 45-point loss space. But overall, the layout still had some gains: during Friday’s daytime session, a wave of short positions on Bitcoin captured a 2,000-point space, and Ethereum captured 70 points of space.

The recent market structure is the typical aftereffect of a big surge upward. There is a strong need for short-term repair in the market, but the stretching uptrend of the larger structure is inevitable. Looking at the monthly level, the market has risen with three consecutive bullish days from the lower Bollinger Band; bullish candles continue to expand volume. The overall board has also turned positive in tandem. Currently, it is in the stage of topping and testing with the last downward probing bearish candle from the prior period. The tug-of-war in the market in the near term is the clearest reflection of this—so this kind of tug-of-war is unavoidable. From the MACD technical indicator, the double lines are gradually turning and beginning to develop upward; the market is clearly turning positive. For the KDJ indicator, the triple lines have even formed a strong bullish trend, continually expanding volume toward a golden cross formation. At the weekly level, this is nothing more than normal market tug-of-war. After breaking the midline earlier, this week is a normal phase of midline accumulation and testing. Only in this way can a more solid and forceful stabilization be formed. On the smaller timeframe daily chart, it is very clear that the market will have some short-term retracement and repair momentum, but the overall strength is clearly insufficient. The bottom support is rising again; after the break below the midline, the probing downward strength gradually weakens. Even though the weekend market momentum is relatively weak at this stage, the current repair structure has already highlighted how much downside potential the market still has. Coupled with the constant stream of recent news and the continued emergence of good sentiment in the market, the main theme for the next phase remains long positions. Next week, the key focus is just the lingering effects of the May 19 Federal Reserve “change of head” event.

Bitcoin: recommended to stage entries for longs in the 77,500–77,000 range. Target 83,000. Breakout to watch: 86,500. Defense to watch: around 75,500.
Ethereum: recommended to go long in the 2,160–2,130 range. Target 2,360. Breakout to watch: 2,460. Defense to watch: around 2,090.
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