#TradFi交易分享挑战 Last Friday (May 15th) Eastern Time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 537 points to 49,526, a decline of 1.07%, erasing the gains that had briefly pushed it above 50,200 earlier in the week. All three major indices declined across the board, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling 1.24% and 1.54%, respectively.

The fundamental cause of this round of sharp decline was a sudden shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations. The unresolved Strait of Hormuz crisis pushed oil prices above $105 per barrel, combined with April’s CPI year-over-year increase to 3.8%, forcing the market to significantly cut back on rate cut expectations. According to FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike by the end of the year has reached 51.5%, while the chance of a rate cut is nearly zero. The yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds soared to 4.606% and 5.13%, respectively, hitting multi-year highs. Additionally, new Chair Kevin Woorh’s potential push for balance sheet reduction and reform of the inflation target framework has increased monetary policy uncertainty.
In the short term, the tug-of-war around the $50k level for the Dow will likely remain intense. Market divergence on the economic outlook has reached an unprecedented level—trading platform Kalshi shows traders are betting that the probability of stagflation by the end of the year is close to 40%. Woorh’s era has officially begun, and if his hawkish stance is confirmed, it could trigger a new round of valuation compression for rate-sensitive blue-chip stocks.