Have you cut losses on BTC at $78,000?

ETF outflows of $635 million in a single day, the largest withdrawal since the end of January; BlackRock suddenly transferred 3,900 BTC to exchanges; Canada plans to ban 4,000 ATMs—just now, the price dropped below $79,000, touching a low of $78,674.
Globally, everyone is shouting "The bear is back," but Strategy's trading volume yesterday hit a record, and Abu Dhabi is still increasing its holdings.
First look at the surface: bearish news piling up, price teetering.
In the past 24 hours, it fell 2%, three attempts to hit $82,000 since May were all rejected, with upper shadows like needles stabbing into bullish traders’ hearts.
24-hour trading volume expanded to $38 billion, but it’s all sell orders.
MACD histogram continues to expand negatively, and the price broke below the lower Bollinger Band.
First thing: ETF funds are retreating massively, but institutions are secretly accumulating.
On May 13, US stock Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $635 million in a single day, the largest since the end of January.
BlackRock personally transferred 3,900 BTC into exchanges, directly shocking the market.
Strategy's record trading volume on May 14 suggests they are still adding positions.
Abu Dhabi increased ETF holdings by 16%.
Second thing: macroeconomics is the biggest ghost story.
April CPI YoY 3.7-3.8%, exceeding expectations; oil prices surged, geopolitical tensions increased.
The Fed has almost zeroed out the probability of rate cuts in 2026, and the market is pricing in a 37% chance of rate hikes.
Third thing: fundamentals are so clean it doesn’t look like a bull market.
MVRV Z-Score is only 0.9-1.0, historical bull tops are 7-12.
Realized Price is about $635M-$61K, current premium only 40%, past cycles were 250-300%.
Puell Multiple is 0.8-0.9, miners are accumulating rather than selling.
On one side:
- ETF outflows of $635 million in a day, short-term panic
- Three rejections at $82,000, technical pressure
- High inflation + hawkish Fed
- BlackRock transferring 3,900 BTC to exchanges
On the other side:
- MVRV only around 1.0, far from a bubble
- Miners accumulating, corporate treasuries expanding
- Strategy and Abu Dhabi are buying real gold and silver
- Long-term HODL ratio at a historic high, exchange balances continuously decreasing
Key level: $78,000, the last line of defense for bulls.
Resistance above: $80,000 → $82,000 (the life-and-death line after three rejections) → $85,000-$90,000
Support below: $77,000-$77,500 (Fibonacci 0.618 + bull market support zone) → $74,000 → $72,000
Short-term traders:
Wait for a dip to $77,500-$78,500 to buy in batches, stop-loss at $77,000, first target $80,000, second target $82,000.
If $82,000 breaks and closes above, add to longs, stop-loss at $80,000, aim for $85,000-$90,000.
Swing traders:
Wait until the daily chart reclaims $80,000 with increased volume before entering.
Don’t cut losses at $78,000—if you do, it’s done, and in a couple of weeks, you’ll regret it.
Long-term believers:
DCA below $78,000.
You don’t need to know where the bottom is; just remember: if MVRV is at 1.0, don’t buy.
Would you wait until MVRV hits 7 to chase?
BTC now is just like March 2020—
Everyone was shouting “The pandemic is collapsing,” but that was the bottom.
At $78,000, you’re panicking, institutions are buying.