Brent crude oil's recent trend is full of uncertainty, with prices fluctuating around $80, and the bulls and bears engaged in an intense tug-of-war. On the supply side, OPEC+ production policies have always been a key variable influencing oil prices. Recent meetings have sent mixed signals, with some member countries wanting to continue production cuts to stabilize prices, while others are inclined to gradually exit their voluntary cuts. This internal disagreement causes market expectations for future supply to swing unpredictably, and any small change could trigger sharp short-term volatility.

Demand-side factors also remain highly uncertain. Manufacturing data from major global economies are mixed, with the Eurozone's economic recovery being sluggish, and China's demand growth affected by the shift to new energy sources, raising concerns about future oil demand. However, the arrival of the North American summer travel season usually provides a seasonal boost to gasoline consumption, somewhat alleviating pessimism on the demand front. Additionally, geopolitical risks continue to serve as an invisible support for oil prices, with the Red Sea shipping crisis and Middle Eastern tensions potentially pushing risk premiums higher again at any moment.

From a technical perspective, since the previous high, XBRUSD has been battling near the upper boundary of a downward channel. The $80 level is not only a psychological milestone but also roughly coincides with the 60-day moving average, providing ample opportunity for both bulls and bears to switch hands. If oil prices can successfully hold above $80 and break through the resistance at $83, there is potential to reverse the recent downtrend; conversely, if it falls back below $78, further downside could open up. In terms of trading, chasing rallies or selling on dips carries high risk, and it’s more suitable to wait for clear breakout signals before taking action. Do you think crude oil will be mainly driven by supply or demand in the future? Feel free to discuss.