Right now, the core issue with BTC is not "Will it go up," but:

Whether it can continue to hold steady above major capital cost zones
Whether the altcoins have truly taken over
Whether the US stock market and liquidity will continue to fuel risk assets
Here's a more straightforward judgment for you:
BTC
If BTC stays above the previous high for several days and pulls back without breaking:
It’s highly likely to continue pushing to new highs
But the closer it gets to the frenzy stage, the more severe the dips and liquidations will be
The most dangerous thing now is:
Everyone starts to think "a pullback is just free money."
Once the market forms this consensus, it’s often not far from a major shakeout
ETH
If ETH continues to outperform BTC now:
It indicates that funds are starting to favor risk-taking
Then AI, MEME, L2 will have sustainability
But if:
BTC consolidates sideways
ETH begins to weaken noticeably
Then the likely scenario is:
Altcoins collectively undergo a correction
What stage does it feel more like now?
Personally, I lean more towards:
The latter half of a bull market, not the starting point
Reasons:
Market leverage is clearly increasing
The national discussion about crypto is heating up
More and more talk about "guaranteed profits" and "doubling"
Many people have already forgotten the risks
This stage can still see gains, but volatility will become more extreme
Operational mindset (short version)
Don’t go all-in on margin
Don’t chase after sharp rises
Only buy on true breakouts, don’t expect to buy at the bottom
Take profits in stages
Holding cash is more important than full position
One sentence:
There are likely still higher points ahead, but the rise won’t be smooth.