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#比特币V型反转 The most dangerous blind spot in the current market is: many bulls generally see "institutional continuous accumulation + ETF net inflows" as an unconditional floor for optimism, but they overlook two falsification paths.
First, Strategy (MSTR) has broken the promise of "never selling coins," and after a $12.54 billion loss in Q1, it started paying STRC dividends with BTC sales. The supply released on the company's balance sheet will amplify downward pressure during liquidity stress periods rather than provide support.
Second, with current BTC open interest at $61.6 billion, crude oil over $100, and a 45% chance of rate hikes coexisting, any macro expectation deterioration—such as hawkish wording in the May 20 FOMC minutes, Warsh publicly leaning toward rate hikes, or Iran's situation escalating again, pushing crude oil to $110—will lead to a systemic washout of the long leverage piled up at high levels.
Core falsification node: The Nvidia earnings report and the FOMC minutes are released on the same day, May 20. If both resonate (AI demand slowdown + hawkish minutes), the current support around $80K for BTC will face the highest test.
BTC is currently a stock game between macro rate hike expectations and ETF position locking. $80k is the average cost line for new whales; holding it secures leveraged longs, breaking it triggers a chain liquidation—this is the only benchmark line worth watching.
First, Strategy (MSTR) has broken the promise of "never selling coins," and after a $12.54 billion loss in Q1, it started paying STRC dividends by selling BTC. The supply released on the corporate balance sheet will amplify downward pressure during liquidity stress periods rather than provide support.
Second, with current BTC open interest at $61.6 billion, crude oil at over $100, and a 45% chance of rate hikes coexisting, any macro expectation deterioration—such as hawkish wording in the May 20 FOMC minutes, Warsh publicly leaning toward rate hikes, or Iran's situation escalating again pushing crude oil to $110—will systematically flush out the leveraged bulls piled up at high levels.
Core falsification node: The Nvidia earnings report and FOMC minutes released on May 20, if resonating (AI demand slowdown + hawkish minutes), will put the current support around $80K for BTC to the ultimate test.
BTC is currently a stock game between macro rate hike expectations and ETF position locking; $80k is the average cost line for new whales. Holding it secures leveraged bulls, breaking it triggers a chain liquidation—this is the only baseline defense worth monitoring.