Next week's macro outlook: The risk of the US-Israel conflict reigniting sharply increases, gold is approaching a turning point.

ME News Report, May 16 (UTC+8), over the past week, driven by the Iran war, energy prices soared, causing U.S. inflation data to surge across the board, with several key indicators reaching multi-year highs. Traders have largely ruled out the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year, while bets on rate hikes within the year have increased. In the coming week, the minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting will be closely watched for signs that the rate hike cycle is beginning to strengthen. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation remains a shadow hanging over global markets. Here are the key points markets will focus on in the new week:
Monday, the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors’ meeting will be held until May 19;
Tuesday 20:00, Fed Governor Waller will speak at the European Central Bank research conference;
Tuesday 20:15, U.S. weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending May 2;
Wednesday 7:00, Fed FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak;
Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting;
Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, April new home starts annualized, April building permits, and May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index;
Friday 22:00, U.S. May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Index, one-year inflation expectations final, and U.S. April Conference Board Leading Economic Index monthly change.
Israel and the U.S. are reportedly likely to resume strikes on Iran as soon as next week, with gold bulls potentially facing a critical moment, amid soaring expectations of rate hikes in the bond market, and the arrival of the final meeting minutes of the “Powell era.” Additionally, the AI boom and consumer spending under inflationary pressure are the two main themes currently influencing the direction of U.S. stocks. Next week, semiconductor giant NVIDIA (NVDA) and retail giants like Walmart (WMT) will release earnings reports one after another, and the market will conduct in-depth analysis around these two main themes. (Source: PANews)