Li Mingyang 5.16 Weekly Review: Bitcoin and Altcoins Pull Back to Gather Strength, Bullish Trend Still Intact.

This week, affected by the US CPI exceeding expectations and the cooling of rate cut expectations, market sentiment quickly weakened. At the beginning of the week, prices oscillated at high levels above 82,000, then selling pressure continued to release, repeatedly breaking below the 80,000 and 78,000 key support levels. The weekly high was 82,788, the low was 78,004, and the weekly candle closed with a solid bearish line, with an overall decline of about 5.7%, retracing the gains of the previous two weeks. Bullish momentum significantly weakened but did not trigger a trend reversal signal.

The trend moved in tandem with Bitcoin but declined more sharply. Early in the week, it maintained strength above 2,400, then, dragged down by decreased market risk appetite, it quickly broke below the critical levels of 2,300 and 2,200, with a low near 2,183. The weekly high was 2,423, the low was 2,183, and the weekly candle closed with a long bearish line, with a decline of about 8.5%, reflecting the weakness of ETH as a high-elasticity asset in a “risk-avoidance mode.”

The weekly trend remains within the bullish channel, with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands continuing upward. Currently, prices are testing support near the weekly MA10, representing a secondary correction within an uptrend, without breaking the key defensive line. The MACD red bars continue to shorten, DIF and DEA are turning downward above the zero line, indicating that weekly bullish momentum is waning but has not yet formed a death cross, so a trend reversal signal is not confirmed. The 80,000-81,000 zone has shifted from support to strong resistance, with multiple rebounds failing to stabilize; the 77,500-77,000 zone is a strong support band at the weekly level, the core defense position of this rally. If broken, the trend will enter a deep correction.

The weekly price broke below the support of MA5 and MA10 moving averages, with the middle band of Bollinger Bands also breached, shifting the medium-term trend from strong to weak, with clearer correction signals than Bitcoin. The MACD green bars continue to enlarge, DIF crossing below DEA to form a death cross, indicating that bearish momentum at the weekly level is beginning to release, and the short-term weak pattern remains difficult to change. The 2,300-2,350 zone is a strong resistance area; if the rebound cannot break through, the weak pattern will continue. The 2,150-2,100 zone is a strong support band from the previous rally, the last line of defense for bulls; if broken, downside space may open.

Bullish setup: Watch for stabilization signals around 77,500-78,000, try a light position long, target 80,000-81,000, stop-loss below 77,000.

Bearish setup: If the rebound fails to break the 80,500-81,000 zone, try a light position short, target 77,500-78,000, stop-loss above 81,500.

Bullish setup: Watch for stabilization signals around 2,150-2,180, need to confirm Bitcoin stabilization simultaneously, try a light position long, target 2,300-2,350, stop-loss below 2,120.

Bearish setup: If the rebound fails to break the 2,300-2,350 zone, try a light position short, target 2,180-2,150, stop-loss above 2,400.

The core driver of this correction is the US inflation data exceeding expectations, which significantly cooled the market’s rate cut expectations for June, boosting risk-avoidance sentiment and causing Bitcoin and Altcoins to retrace together. At the weekly level, their key support zones have not been broken, and this still constitutes a normal correction within an uptrend, not a trend reversal. Future focus should be on US PPI data and Federal Reserve officials’ speeches. If inflation remains high, market rate cut expectations will further cool, risking support zone breakdown; if inflation data declines, market sentiment may recover, and prices could rebound next week. $ETH