Data does not lie. As of today (May 16th) early trading, BTC is priced at approximately $79,353, down 1.63% in 24 hours; ETH is priced at $2,229, a single-day decline of 1.74%, with the 7-day cumulative drop expanding to 3.43%. Ethereum has nearly halved from its all-time high of 33.7k RMB—this is not a correction, but a prolonged, chronic bleed.

The bulls' logic is not unfounded. The Pectra upgrade has been implemented, account abstraction and staking cap increases have brought in over $3.8 billion in capital inflows; Fusaka has cut L2 costs by 40%~60%, Layer 2 total TVL has reached around $50 billion, with an average of 65 million transactions per day. ETF net inflows in April totaled $356 million, supporting the fundamentals.

But reality is harsh. The US core PCE remains at 3.2%, the probability of rate hikes within the year has risen to 20.8%, the 30-year Treasury yield hovers around 5%, and the liquidity tightening Damocles sword remains hanging. ETH price has not even recovered the 20-day moving average ($2,287), RSI hovers around the midline of 50, and the market simply does not give faith a chance to land.

The only trading logic is: $2,200 is the life-and-death line, a break below means no mercy in reducing positions; only reclaiming $2,400 can we talk about a rebound. The baseline expected range is $3,000 to $4,000, but only if macro conditions do not turn sour. Don’t bet on miracles, survive first.