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Cryptocurrency Market Observation
The bullish logic is not unfounded. The Pectra upgrade has been implemented, account abstraction and staking cap increases have brought in over $3.8 billion in capital inflows; Fusaka has cut Layer 2 costs by 40%~60%, Layer 2 total TVL has reached around $50 billion, with an average of 65 million transactions per day. ETF net inflows in April totaled $356 million, supporting the fundamentals strongly.
But reality is harsh. The US core PCE remains at 3.2%, the probability of rate hikes this year has risen to 20.8%, the 30-year Treasury yield hovers around 5%, and the liquidity tightening Damocles sword remains hanging. ETH price has not even recovered the 20-day moving average ($2,287), RSI hovers around the midline of 50, and the market simply does not give faith a chance to land.
The only trading logic is: $2,200 is the life-and-death line; if it falls below, reduce positions without hesitation.