#BitcoinVShapedReversalBack

BlackRock Warns AI Capital Expenditures Are Turning Micro Into Macro for the Market

BlackRock Investment Institute warns investors that AI capital expenditures (capex) at the corporate level are now driving the entire macroeconomic market background. This asset manager states that their primary theme for 2026, namely micro is macro, reflects this shift.

Notes from strategists Jean Boivin and Wei Li emerge as capital spending by Big Tech companies reaches around US$725 billion this year. The figure has increased by about 10% from estimates before the first-quarter earnings reports. This level of capex competes with traditional macroeconomic drivers.

AI Capex Now Competing with Traditional Macro Drivers

The micro-is-macro theory highlights that capex from a small number of companies can shape growth, revenue, and yields. These expenditures now rival central bank policies as market drivers.

BlackRock estimates that AI infrastructure investments could reach US$5 trillion to US$8 trillion within this decade. The Magnificent Seven recently posted quarterly profit growth of around 57%. AI is now a major force behind the rise in US stocks.

The firm believes AI could be the first innovation in 150 years strong enough to push US growth above 2%. They emphasize that the ultimate outcome remains uncertain.

Inflation and the Strait of Hormuz Increase Risks

Price pressures have been high before the Strait of Hormuz closure added new energy risks. BlackRock now sees about three interest rate hikes already priced in Europe, with the US in a resilient position.

The company remains overweight on US stocks and emerging markets. They warn that long-term US bonds are no longer the portfolio hedge they once were. Higher yields, combined with sticky inflation, could start to pressure valuations if disruptions continue.

Bitcoin Caught in the Crossfire of Macro Flows

The crypto asset market also reflects similar strength. Bitcoin
BTCUSD
trades around US$80,646, about 36% below the October 2025 record of US$126,080. Ethereum
ETHUSD
is around US$2,260, more than 50% below the August 2025 peak.

Capital that once flowed into risky assets is now shifting to AI capex and energy security, increasing funding competition. BlackRock sees genuine diversification now requiring private markets and hedge funds rather than spreading across traditional assets.

Rising leverage, weakening traditional protections, and only a few large players moving everything make passive positions increasingly limited. Whether AI capex continues to sustain growth advantages or begins to displace other assets is now the key question. The answer could determine the risk market trajectory through the second half of 2026.