#Gate广场五月交易分享 5.15 BTC Short-term Trend Review + Logical Sorting

I. Bitcoin (BTC) Trend Verification
1. Yesterday's Prediction Was Precisely Confirmed
After breaking the previous low, a rebound was expected; the hourly chart showed a golden cross at the bottom, lows recovered, and a rebound near the trend line. The actual market volume increased with consecutive bullish days, directly surging to nearly 82,000, exceeding expectations but with the direction fully matching.
2. Current Bearish Logic Closure
Structure: Oscillating at high levels within a descending channel, with highs and lows continuously moving downward. Last night’s rebound precisely tested the downward trend line, with clear resistance;
Indicators: Hourly MACD divergence is significant, a death cross is strongly expected, and bullish momentum is waning;
Key Levels: 83,100 is a strong stop-loss level. If not broken, the bear trend remains valid. Once broken, the downtrend channel invalidates, and the correction ends, transitioning to a consolidation rally.
High-position short positions around 82,000 are justified; in the short term, focus on testing the lower boundary of the channel and previous lows, mainly engaging in high sell and low buy within the oscillation range.
II. Ethereum (ETH) Weakness Confirms Core Viewpoint
1. Rebound strength is much weaker than BTC, never breaking through the previous rebound high, indicating insufficient bullish support and clear weakness characteristics;
2. On the 4-hour chart, aligned with BTC, in a high-level oscillation zone, with the structure turning bearish early;
3. Trend forecast: Following BTC’s rebound, a new round of decline is likely, with a high probability of retesting the previous low, maintaining a sideways downward rhythm.
III. Subsequent Trading Core Conclusions (Fully aligned with your strategy)
1. Short-term: Mainly oscillating at high levels, engaging in high sell and low buy within the range, avoiding heavy positions in a one-sided game;
2. Main strategy: Positioning for a bearish setup at high levels, holding short positions firmly if BTC does not break 83,100, and simultaneously shorting ETH;
3. Risk Control: Only abandon the short strategy if BTC volume stabilizes above 83,100, then switch to a bullish continuation approach.