#GateSquareMayTradingShare

The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) continues its strength, closing up 0.7% around 29,580 points on May 14, approaching the all-time high of 29,700 points during trading. The performance difference among its component stocks is quite clear, with Cisco soaring 13.4% due to AI order increases, Nvidia rising for seven consecutive days by more than 4%; however, Qualcomm plunged over 6%, Amazon, Apple, Google, and other tech giants experienced slight declines, and the China Dragon stock index fell 3.37%.
Valuations are currently at an all-time high, with a PE-TTM of about 34 times, in the 78th percentile since 2011; the price-to-book ratio is 9.46 times, even in the 98th percentile over the past ten years. MACD shows bearish divergence, RSI hovers around 79, and technically, it is in a severely overbought zone.
From a macroeconomic perspective, there are greater concerns: the US May CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, PPI increased up to 6% annually, and overall inflation exceeded expectations. CME FedWatch indicates that the market probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year has collapsed from 21% a month ago to 12%, while the chance of rate hikes jumped to 16%, indicating a significant shift in policy outlook.
The main reason supporting the index's rise—the explosion of the AI industry and substantial profits from tech giants—still holds, with S&P 500 stocks reporting Q1 earnings up 27% year-over-year, boosting market confidence. But amid high valuation pressures, expectations of tightening, and technical overbought conditions, the risk of a short-term correction cannot be ignored.
The index's direction will heavily depend on whether Nvidia's upcoming earnings report can continue to meet AI profit expectations, and whether inflation data can ease market concerns about interest rate hikes. #TradFi交易分享挑战