Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) continues its strong momentum, closing up 0.7% on May 14th at around 29,580 points, briefly approaching a new all-time high near 29,700 points during the session. There is a clear divergence among the component stocks, with Cisco surging 13.4% after raising AI order forecasts, and Nvidia posting seven consecutive gains, up over 4%; however, Qualcomm plunged more than 6%, and tech giants like Amazon, Apple, and Google all recorded slight declines. The China concept stock index, Golden Dragon Index, fell 3.37%.

Current valuations are at historically high levels, with a PE-TTM of about 34 times, placing it in the 78th percentile since 2011; the price-to-book ratio is 9.46, in the 98th percentile over the past decade. The MACD shows a bearish divergence, and the RSI hovers around 79, indicating the technicals are in a seriously overbought zone. On the macro front, there are greater concerns: the US April CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, and PPI soared 6% YoY, with inflation exceeding expectations across the board. CME FedWatch shows that the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year has collapsed from 21% a month ago to 12%, while the probability of a rate hike has jumped to 16%, indicating a dramatic reversal in policy outlook.

The core logic supporting the index's rise—AI industry explosion and strong earnings from tech giants—remains valid, with the S&P 500 components' Q1 profits increasing 27% YoY boosting market confidence. However, under the combined pressures of high valuations, the return of tightening expectations, and technical overbought conditions, short-term correction risks should not be overlooked. The index's direction will depend on whether upcoming Nvidia earnings can continue to deliver AI profit expectations and whether inflation data can ease market concerns about rate hikes. #TradFi交易分享挑战