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Why hasn't the anticipated big rally occurred after the U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed the "Clarity Act"?
Today, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee approved the "Clarity Act" with a vote of 15 to 9. This is the largest bill in cryptocurrency history and could serve as a powerful trigger for the upcoming bull market. The bill will proceed to a full Senate vote and is expected to be merged with an earlier version. To pass in the Senate, the bill requires 60 votes; today, two Democratic senators voted in favor during the committee vote. If it receives 60 votes, the bill will be sent to the House of Representatives, which has already approved the earlier version and is expected to approve this version as well. The final step requires the president's signature and regulatory rulemaking, which is expected to take 1-2 years but will bring innovation and liquidity to the market. The bill explicitly classifies certain assets as commodities or securities, which is positive for most assets becoming digital commodities rather than securities. DeFi becomes safer, with necessary protections written into law, opening the door for more developers and institutions to explore DeFi use cases.
Last night, including Little God of Wealth, many bulls were eagerly awaiting the passage of the "CLARITY Act" to trigger a big rally, with many analysts even predicting a breakout above 83,000 for Bitcoin and a return to a bull market. Surprisingly, although the bill was approved by the Senate Banking Committee, Bitcoin did not reach 83,000. After rebounding to around 82,000, it encountered resistance and fell back, closing this morning at $80,900. So why didn't the market break upward as expected?
1. The "drop-the-mic" effect of positive news being realized
Passing the "CLARITY Act" in the Senate Banking Committee is just a key step in the legislative process; it still needs full Senate approval, coordination with the House version, and the president's signature. Currently, there are clear partisan divides, and subsequent progress is uncertain. The market had already partially priced in regulatory good news; once the news was confirmed, short-term speculative enthusiasm waned, and profit-taking increased, leading to selling pressure around 82,000.
2. Resistance at a key technical level (bull market not back)
83,000 is a resistance level where Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break through before, and it coincides with the 200-day moving average. This area is packed with previous trapped positions and short positions. When the price rebounds to this zone, the rebound force from shorts and the sell-off from trapped traders are concentrated, creating strong resistance that makes it difficult for Bitcoin to break through.
3. Changes in capital flow and market sentiment
- Cautious institutional funds: Although whales have been accumulating at low levels, ETF fund outflows earlier indicated some institutional caution. There are differing views on the market trend after regulatory good news, and no large-scale influx of funds has driven the rally.
- Divergence in retail investor sentiment: The sharp drop below 79,000 shook some retail investors' confidence. When the price rebounded to 82,000, those trapped earlier rushed to exit, while latecomers, fearing high positions, hesitated to buy. This divergence in sentiment also limited further upward movement.
4. Potential macroeconomic impacts
Although the U.S. April CPI data was below expectations, inflation pressures have not been fully eliminated. Market expectations for rate cuts have increased but lack consensus. The dollar index has declined somewhat but has not weakened significantly. Bitcoin's role as "digital gold" for inflation hedging has not been fully realized, and macro support remains insufficient.