MegaETH Economics Note 1

I want to start offering informal notes on the MegaETH economy so people can get a high-level view of what is going on. Please note all figures, tables, graphs, and commentary should be considered preliminary and not to be relied upon (including resolution of prediction markets).
Since I wrote on the topic earlier, let’s kick off with an update on the USDM money supply. Full definitions of M0, M1, and M2 are at the bottom. We will ignore M3, since it isn’t relevant for now.
April 30, 2026 (TGE Day)
M0: ~60 million
M1: ~360 million
M2: N/A
May 15, 2026 (Today)
M0: ~51 million
M1: ~653 million
M2: N/A
What we see so far is that USDM supply is overwhelmingly concentrated in Aave. Most of the M0 supply is in DEXes, serving as liquidity primarily on Kumbaya, World Markets, and Prism, in that order.
The fall in M0 is appears to be driven by reduced LPing on those protocols, while the M1 supply grew quickly before leveling off at its current level. The main observed demand drivers look like looping USDe and for using USDM as a funding currency, since it can easily be converted to USDC and used to refinance higher-rate debt on other chains. Both appear to be at an equilibrium at the moment.
I hesitate to make predictions, but if I were, I would expect M1 to consolidate around here until Aave or another lending protocol provide other offerings that would increase M1. There have been no collateral asset additions to Aave since USDe, and the rate environment on other chains has been settling down, reducing the demand to refinance foreign USDC debt into domestic USDM debt.
It’s still early days on MegaETH, so as more apps come online - in particular DeFi apps - I would expect considerable movements in both M0 and M1 supply.
It will take deployment of a protocol with time deposits before we begin to see any real difference between M2 and M1. M2 showing up will mean a structured credit market is beginning to develop.
I’ll close by noting that the core strengths of MegaETH’s app portfolio at launch have been consumer-facing financial entertainment apps that don’t directly impact the USDM money supply, but increase the velocity of USDM. Given the unexpectedly large monetary base of USDM out of the starting gate, it won’t make discussion of the *overall* USDM velocity of money very high, but are producing legitimate MegaETH GDP.
I’ll try to track GDP directly as it grows in relation to the monetary base.
Definitions:
M0 consists of USDM held by the public outside of deposit-taking protocols, centralized exchanges, and companies
M1 consists of 1) M0, 2) demand deposits denominated in USDM at deposit-taking protocols, centralized exchanges, and companies, and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of Other Checkable Deposits and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts)
M2 consists of (1) M1, (2) time deposits and maturing assets (<6 months) denominated in USDM