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I noticed that the overwhelming majority of traders lose deposits by following classic technical analysis. Beautiful patterns, perfect triangles, support levels — everything breaks in the 'wrong' direction. Why does this happen? Because big players intentionally draw these formations for the crowd, knowing its psychology. This is where the concept called smart money helps to understand — it’s a method of analyzing the behavior of large capital, used by whales, banks, hedge funds, and institutional investors.
Smart money is essentially the same technical analysis but built on candlestick analysis and understanding the actions of big players. The main difference: a large participant always acts against the crowd’s expectations. They play on the emotions of small traders, move the market in the desired direction, and profit. Whales need huge liquidity to fill their orders, so they hunt for it using various tricks.
The market consists of three structures: an uptrend (bullish trend with new highs and rising lows), a downtrend (bearish trend with new lows and falling highs), and sideways movement — flat or consolidation. Identifying the current structure is the foundation of all analysis. When a whale accumulates a position, a sideways movement often forms, where they gather the necessary liquidity.
The main tool of a big player is liquidity. Smart money is a strategy that helps identify where exactly the stop orders of small participants are located. They usually accumulate behind obvious support/resistance levels, outside figure boundaries, behind candle shadows. By filling these stops, the whale builds their position. Such accumulations are called liquidity pools.
An important point is the so-called Deviation, when the price moves outside the trading range. This often signals a reversal and a return back. Entry into a position can be made at the first attempts of the price to return within the corridor boundaries.
There are several key patterns. Swing high and Swing low are reversal points consisting of three candles, where the central candle has an extremum, and the neighboring candles are lower/higher. Break Of Structure (BOS) is an update of the structure within a trend. Change of character (CHoCH) is a change in trend direction. The first BOS after a CHoCH confirms a trend reversal.
Order block (OB) is a place where a big player traded a large volume and conducted a key manipulation. In the future, order blocks serve as support or resistance, becoming a magnet for the price. Imbalance (Imbalance) occurs due to a mismatch between buy and sell orders — a long candle whose body 'tears' the shadows of neighboring candles. The price tends to close this 'gap'.
Divergence is a discrepancy between the price movement and an indicator — a strong reversal signal. Bullish divergence: price lows decrease, but indicator lows increase. Bearish divergence: price highs increase, but indicator highs decrease. On higher timeframes, signals are stronger.
Volumes reflect the actual interest of participants. Growing volumes indicate a strong trend, decreasing volumes signal its weakening. If the price rises while purchase volumes decline, it may indicate an upcoming reversal downward.
The Three Drives Pattern is a reversal pattern with a series of higher highs or lower lows. The Three Tap Setup is similar but without the third extremum — a sign of accumulation by a big player.
Market activity concentrates on three trading sessions: Asian (03:00-11:00), European/London (09:00-17:00), and American/New York (16:00-24:00) Moscow time. Within the day, three cycles occur: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution.
The Chicago CME exchange trades Bitcoin futures from Monday to Friday. It 'rests' on weekends, which can create gaps (price jumps) at the opening on Monday, especially if the price changed significantly over the weekend on classic crypto exchanges. These 'holes' are usually filled, acting as magnets for the price.
The crypto market heavily depends on the traditional stock market. The S&P 500 has a positive correlation with Bitcoin: a rise in the index usually accompanies a rise in BTC. The DXY (dollar index) has an inverse correlation: its growth is associated with BTC decline. These indices should not be ignored in analysis.
In summary: smart money is a strategy that helps identify the actions of big players and explains the nature of their manipulations. By understanding this concept, you can profit from these manipulations and trade alongside large capital. This is the path to joining the ranks of successful traders. BTC ETH