Daily Learning 🤠🤑 — Two-Year MA Multiplier Indicator

This tool is essentially a long-term valuation + a reference for buy/sell timing, designed based on Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycle:

1. Below the green line = Extremely undervalued (bottom-fishing buy zone)

- Historically, when BTC’s price falls below or is close to the two-year moving average, it is almost always the bottom of a bear market

- Examples: Near the lows in 2011-2012, 2015, 2018-2019, 2022-2023

- Buying in these zones and holding long-term can usually achieve extremely high returns

2. Above the red line = Overvalued / Bubble zone (top-selling zone)

- When the price is more than 5 times the two-year MA by a large margin, it is often near the top of a bull market

- Examples: Late 2013, late 2017, the high point in 2021

- Taking profit or reducing positions at this time can help you avoid subsequent major pullbacks (50-80%)

3. Between the two lines = Reasonable / Bullish progression zone

- The price consolidates and moves upward between the green and red lines; this is typically during the main upward surge phase of a bull market, and you can continue to hold

🤔 Overall logic: The two-year MA represents the “average cost of long-term holders,” and multiplying it by 5 captures the typical frenzy premium during a bull market. Bitcoin’s history has repeatedly validated this rhythm.

For $BTC as an investment reference value:

- Best suited for long-term investors: it is not a short-term trading tool, but a discipline framework to help you buy when fear is extreme and sell when greed is extreme

- High historical accuracy: in the past several cycles, the buy signals provided by this indicator corresponded to the start of subsequent major bull markets, and the sell signals helped avoid most crashes

👣 For the current Bitcoin reference:

Currently, it has moved out of the extremely undervalued zone (below the green line): the value-zone buy signal from early March has been partially realized, and it is in a typical bear-to-bull recovery phase. Historically, after this kind of rebound, it often begins a new round of upward movement.

It is now in the accumulation and shakeout phase, suitable for long-term holding + dollar-cost averaging, rather than going all-in to chase high prices or rushing to sell.

The indicator is for reference only—DYOR!