Recently, I have noticed that many people in the crypto community are starting to pay attention to a rather strange economic prediction tool — the Benner Cycle. It is being widely shared on investment forums, and everyone seems to have their own opinion about its accuracy.

The Benner Cycle actually has a quite long history. It was created by Samuel Benner, an American farmer, after he suffered heavy losses during the 1873 depression. Instead of giving up, he began studying economic patterns and in 1875, he published the book "Business Forecasts of Future Fluctuations in Prices." Since then, the Benner chart has existed for over 150 years.

What’s interesting about this chart is that it doesn’t rely on complex mathematical models. Benner based it on his own observations of agricultural commodity price cycles, combined with the belief that solar cycles influence crop yields, which in turn affect agricultural prices. The chart is divided into three lines: Line A marks years of turmoil, Line B indicates ideal years to sell, and Line C highlights good years for accumulation during downturns.

Why has the Benner chart gained so much attention? Because, according to some investors, it has accurately predicted major financial events — the Great Depression of 1929, World War II, the Dot-Com bubble, and even the COVID-19 crash. Although it’s not always perfectly accurate, deviations are usually just a few years. Last year, when the Benner chart suggested a market peak around 2025-2026, many retail investors used it to support their optimistic scenarios.

However, recently, confidence in the Benner chart has been challenged. In April last year, when President Trump announced a controversial new tax plan, global markets reacted negatively. April 7, 2025, was called by some as Black Monday — the total crypto market cap dropped from $2.64 trillion to $2.32 trillion. JPMorgan then increased the probability of a global recession to 60%, and Goldman Sachs also raised their recession forecast to 45%.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt criticized the Benner chart at that time, claiming it was just a fantasy world he couldn’t trade based on. He had a point, as unforeseen economic events disrupted many plans.

Interestingly, despite these challenges, some investors still trust Samuel Benner’s prophecy. They believe that markets are not just numbers — they involve sentiment, memory, and human motivation. And sometimes, old quirky charts like the Benner Cycle work, not because they are magical, but because enough people believe they are effective.

Google Trends also shows that search interest in the Benner Cycle has increased significantly in recent months. This reflects retail investors’ desire for optimistic stories, especially as economic and political instability rises. Whether the Benner chart is correct or not, it has become part of the conversation in the investment community, and perhaps that is also a form of its value.