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With weak spot demand, Bitcoin's rally remains fragile and may face a reversal in the short term
According to Cryptopolitan, the market report released by Wintermute states that Bitcoin breaking above $80,000 was mainly driven by short squeeze in the perpetual futures market, rather than spot demand. Over the past month, Bitcoin futures open interest increased by approximately $10 billion to $58 billion, while spot trading volume dropped to a two-year low. When Bitcoin broke above $70,000, a large number of shorts were forced to cover, triggering a buying wave that pushed prices higher.
Wintermute warns that the rally lacking support from spot demand is fragile, and the market could face a sharp reversal. In the long term, recent net inflows into spot ETFs reached $623 million, and Bitcoin holdings on exchanges fell to a seven-year low, but these factors are insufficient to offset short-term risks. U.S. CPI data exceeding expectations and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve chair nomination could also intensify market pressure. Wintermute states that $85,000 is still possible, but the risk-reward ratio of buying at current levels is unfavorable.
According to Cryptopolitan, a market report released by Wintermute states that Bitcoin breaking above $80,000 was mainly driven by short squeeze in the perpetual futures market, rather than spot demand. Over the past month, Bitcoin futures open interest increased by approximately $10 billion to $58 billion, while spot trading volume dropped to a two-year low. When Bitcoin broke above $70,000, a large number of shorts were forced to cover, triggering a buying wave that pushed prices higher.
Wintermute warns that the rally lacking support from spot demand is fragile, and the market could face a sharp reversal. In the long term, recent net inflows into spot ETFs reached $623 million, and Bitcoin holdings on exchanges fell to a seven-year low, but these factors are insufficient to offset short-term risks. U.S. CPI data exceeding expectations and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve chair nomination could also intensify market pressure. Wintermute states that reaching $85,000 is still possible, but the risk-reward ratio for buying at current levels is unfavorable.