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Market Review: The market has not collapsed; funds are completing their final cleanup.
Last night, many believed the bull market was over and everything was collapsing. But a closer look shows that AI and chip stocks in the U.S. market exploded simultaneously. The Nasdaq and S&P hit record highs. Global risk appetite has never disappeared.
Only cryptocurrencies are weakening alone. The truth is simple: funds are not fleeing risk assets but are selectively and actively reducing uncertainty.
BTC fell to a low of 78,721 but held the key range, thanks to steady ETF inflows and strong consensus on digital gold. ETH continued to weaken unilaterally, dropping from 2,322 to 2,236, with selling pressure crushing buying interest. Without any core positive news sparking a reversal, the downward trend naturally continues. SOL and most altcoins were among the first to be cut, with losses spiraling out of control.
Two core negative factors are still suppressing the market.
1. U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations. The Fed’s quick rate cuts and the illusion of turning to easing have been shattered. Long-term high interest rates mean volatile assets are sold first. The greater the volatility, the worse the decline.
2. Before major geopolitical events, the market only trades outcomes, not guesses. Large outside funds remain defensive. No large entries occur before variables appear. Internal market sentiment is chaotic, and confidence is collapsing.
Core trend outlook. To be clear: this is not the top of the bull market. It is a thorough deleveraging of high leverage combined with a forced cooling of overheated sentiment. The foundation of the bull market remains solid. The frantic and widespread rally phase has completely ended.
Key defensive ranges. BTC: 78,000-78,500. As long as it does not break below with high trading volume, the overall trend remains intact. ETH: 2,200-2,230. Holding this range keeps hope for a reversal. If broken, sentiment will collapse, testing the 2,000-2,100 range.
Next trading principle. Now is not the time for blind speculation. $ETH $BTC