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Will the 《CLARITY Act》 vote pass tonight? How will the market move? Here's an initial analysis
Less than 8 hours left! The result of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee vote on the 《CLARITY Act》, which will determine Bitcoin's short-term fate, is about to be announced. The entire market is waiting to see this outcome. During the critical period when Bitcoin failed to break above 82,000 and retreated to 79,000 USD, whether the bill passes will not only decide if Bitcoin can rebound but also influence whether the "bull return" prediction can come true.
Latest version of the bill's core content:
1. Clarify the classification of cryptocurrencies (such as securities, commodities, or others), and delineate the regulatory jurisdiction of the SEC and CFTC.
2. Address stablecoin yield issues with a compromise: prohibit paying interest rewards on "idle stablecoin holdings" similar to bank deposits, but allow rewards linked to actual transactions like payments and transfers (such as cashback or fee subsidies).
3. Other provisions involve anti-money laundering rules and preventing political officials from profiting from cryptocurrencies.
Probability assessment‌
‌High likelihood of passing during committee review (about 70%)‌:
The compromise has alleviated core disputes: the deadlock between the banking industry and the crypto sector mainly revolves around stablecoin yields. The latest compromise (banning idle rewards but allowing activity-based rewards) has gained support from some bipartisan lawmakers (such as Republican Senator Tom Tillis and Democratic Senator Angela Alston Brooks), reducing the risk of immediate rejection.
Strong political momentum: polls show broad voter support for the bill (52% approval, only 11% opposition), and supporting lawmakers could gain about a 20-point advantage in elections. This increases pressure for committee approval, especially with a Republican majority.
Tight time window: the White House has set July 4 as the target date for presidential signing. Missing the window before Memorial Day on May 21 could delay the bill due to the November midterm elections. Committee members (like Senator Cynthia Lummis) have emphasized "the need to act quickly."
‌Potential risks‌:
Banking lobbying resistance remains: groups like the American Bankers Association oppose stablecoin provisions, fearing deposit outflows threaten financial stability, which could influence some Republican lawmakers.
Insufficient Democratic support: the bill needs support from at least 7 Democratic lawmakers across party lines, but many Democrats criticize the weak anti-money laundering provisions, which could drag down votes.
If the committee does not pass it, the bill will stall; however, based on the current compromise text and industry lobbying (such as Cbase's push), the probability of passage remains favorable.
Market outlook prediction
Optimistic scenario (bill passes committee review)‌:
Overall market rise‌: increased regulatory clarity will reduce uncertainty and attract institutional capital inflows. Bitcoin (BTC) could break through the key resistance of 80,000 USD, testing the 82,000-85,000 USD range. Stablecoin issuers (like Circle, USDC) and exchanges (like Coinbase) will benefit directly, with stock and token prices potentially continuing to rise.
‌Major cryptocurrencies support and resistance levels‌:
‌Bitcoin (BTC)‌: Support at 78,000 USD (recent low and psychological level), resistance at 80,000 USD (historical resistance), breaking through could target 82,000 USD.
‌Ethereum (ETH)‌: Support at 2,230 USD (technical moving average support), resistance at 2,300-2,400 USD (key integer levels).
‌Market sentiment‌: If the review results are optimistic, the market may replicate the rally after the compromise was announced in early May (Bitcoin once broke 80,000 USD, and Circle's stock surged nearly 20% in a single day).
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Pessimistic scenario (bill fails or is delayed)‌:
Short-term correction risk‌: regulatory uncertainty re-emerges, possibly triggering profit-taking. Bitcoin may test support at 75,000-78,000 USD, Ethereum could dip to 2,150 USD. Stablecoins and exchange tokens (like Cbase's COIN) may see larger declines.
‌Key risk event‌: If banking opposition dominates the review, it could reinforce concerns about "capital outflows," dampening market confidence.
Operational advice
‌Short-term trading‌: Monitor the committee vote result (to be announced today). If approved, consider increasing positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and compliant stablecoins; if not, reduce holdings and wait.
‌Main points to watch‌: Final definition of stablecoin yield provisions, changes in Democratic votes, and whether Bitcoin can hold above 80,000 USD.
‌Risk warning‌: The bill involves intense political negotiations, and unexpected delays or amendments could cause sharp volatility. It’s advisable not to bet on news; wait until the outcome is confirmed and then combine technical analysis for trading decisions.