$79,000 Bitcoin—are you panicking?

ETF outflows of $630 million in a single day, CPI surging to 3.8%, and leveraged liquidations of 300 million—yet right now, the RSI has crashed to 11.9, plunging straight into the “most oversold in history” zone, then hard-punched back to $79,700. So is this wave the end of the correction—or the final escape window before a plunge?

First, look at the surface: a barrage of bad news, but the price hasn’t broken down.

In the past 24 hours, it’s down 1.8%, pulling back from the 82k high. Market cap is 1.6 trillion, with daily trading volume of over $30 billion. The candlestick chart tells you this: choppy, range-bound action at high levels—washing back and forth between 79k and 82k. Neither the previous high nor the previous low has been broken.

First thing: ETF outflows of $630 million in one day—but net inflows last week were over $700 million.

On May 13, yes, it was hit with $630 million in outflows, and the media went into overdrive exaggerating it. But if you look back one week: net inflows were $700 million. Go back further to the cumulative total: total ETF inflows have already exceeded $59 billion.

MicroStrategy bought again, taking its holdings up to 810,000 BTC.

Second thing: CPI at 3.8% is propped up by an energy price surge—not demand-driven inflation.

The Iran conflict pushed gasoline up 46%. This is a supply shock, not an overheated economy. Even the Fed knows—at the April FOMC meeting, 4 members opposed keeping rates unchanged, the most disagreement since 1992. Powell says “no rate cuts,” but his body is honest: the probability of cuts before July has been priced out—yet the moment oil prices fall back, expectations can flip instantly.

Third thing: RSI hitting 11.9 is the most extreme oversold level since 2024.

Every time RSI breaks below 20, the average rebound over the next three months is 40%+. Today, during trading, it smashed to around 78,800. After RSI bottomed out, it sprang straight back to $79,700—buyers are already in.

On one side:

- Long-term holders hold nearly 4 million BTC, up 300% compared with end of 2025

- ETF cumulative inflows of $59 billion, institutions steadily accumulating

- CLARITY Act hearings advancing—clear signals of regulator-friendliness

- Google search interest falling to a 12-month low—a classic contrarian indicator: retail in fear, institutions greedy

On the other side:

- Single-day ETF outflows of $630 million—near-term sentiment suppressed

- CPI/PPI coming in hotter than expected—rate-hike odds are being debated

- Geopolitical conflict (Iran) could escalate at any time

- Price stuck below the 200-day EMA (82k), with no breakout

Key level: $79,700—just a little over $1,000 away from strong support.

Resistance above: 80,500 (short-term line in the sand) → 82,946 (200-day EMA) → 85,000 → 90k-97k

Support below: 78,000-76,300 (strong support zone) → 73,300 → 68k-61k (extreme scenario)

For short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to the 78,000-76,500 range to enter in batches. Stop-loss at 75,800 (exit if broken). First target 80,500, second target 85,000.

For swing traders:

Wait for daily volume to pick up and stabilize above 80,500 before entering. Stop-loss at 78,000. Target 85k-87k. Add on confirmation of the breakout, and use dynamic take-profit.

For long-term believers:

Blindly DCA below 78k. Add to your position every time it dips 5%. End of 2026 target: 90k-97k, or even higher—betting on falling inflation + continued ETF inflows + regulatory implementation. But remember—if the weekly chart loses 73k and ETF outflows continue for four straight weeks, reduce positions decisively for defense.

BTC right now is like gold at the end of 2023—

Everyone thinks, “It’s high, it should be down,” but it rose from 2000 to 2500. #Gate广场五月交易分享 #美国4月PPI同比暴涨6% $BTC $ETH