💥FACES ARE CAUGHT‼️

🔸New FED,
🔸Trump Meeting,
🔸Peace Diplomacy....
1. "Silent" Revolution at the Fed: The New Chair Warsh Era
• Strategy Shift: With new Chair Warsh, the Fed is adopting a less talkative, forward-guidance-free, and balance sheet-reducing structure.
• Fine-Tuning Inflation Calculation: Warsh indicated he will use the "Trimmed Mean" method, which excludes extreme values instead of the standard core inflation, signaling a method that could show higher inflation data as lower.
• Data Alert: Both CPI (%3.8) and PPI (%6.0) in the US exceeded expectations, proving that the stickiness in service inflation continues.
2. Trump’s Visit to China: The Market’s Destiny Is at This Table
• Peace Scenario: If Trump can persuade China to pressure Iran; energy prices may normalize, geopolitical risks decrease, and CEOs of giant companies worth $14 trillion could open new business doors.
• Crisis Scenario: If the visit yields no results; market tension will prevail due to diplomatic deadlock and increased risk of conflict.
3. Current Market Conditions and Divergence
• Stocks and Bonds: US stocks hit record highs, while bond yields are on an upward trend. The dollar index is slightly premium at 98.5.
• Commodities: Oil remains above $100; gold per ounce is stuck around $4,680.
4. Domestic Market: Eyes on Central Bank President Karahan
• In the second Inflation Report presentation of the year, whether the Central Bank will revise its targets based on current data is the main agenda for the local market.
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