#Gate广场五月交易分享

My Ethereum Intraday Long Plan

1. Market Review

Current ETH price is $2,268.71, down 1.36% in 24 hours, indicating a clear short-term correction. The 24-hour high reached $2,323.32, and the low dipped to $2,234.64, with an intraday range of about $88.68. Volatility is moderate, providing room for intraday long operations.

Looking at the 7-day candlestick chart, ETH has experienced a sustained decline. Starting from $2,291 on May 8, it slightly rebounded to $2,326 (high of $2,338) on May 9, then continued higher to $2,371 (high of $2,382) on May 10, which is the highest point in the past 7 days. Afterwards, it began a continuous pullback: closing at $2,339 (high of $2,374, low of $2,304) on May 11, dropping to $2,275 (high of $2,340, low of $2,256) on May 12, and further down to $2,258 (high of $2,323, low of $2,234) on May 13. Three consecutive days closed with bearish candles, with a total decline from the high of $2,382 to $2,258, approximately 5.2%. Early this morning, the 4-hour candlestick shows the price further dipping to $2,242, with a low of $2,238, currently hovering around $2,268.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis

The technical signals show a "short-term bearish bias but initial oversold rebound signals."

15-minute level: ADX at 24.56, indicating moderate trend momentum; CCI at 87.47, approaching overbought but not overheated; WR at -19.46, in the overbought zone; moving averages are in bullish (bullish alignment), suggesting a short-term rebound; SAR at $2,255.28, serving as a stop-loss for longs, with the price about $13 above the SAR point, indicating a weak but valid bullish trend.

1-hour level: ADX at 26.62, trend momentum moderate to weak; CCI at 56.11, neutral to slightly bullish; WR at -19.46, in the overbought zone; however, moving averages are in bearish (bearish alignment), indicating a short-term bearish trend; SAR at $2,239.39, acting as a stop-loss for longs, with the current price about $29 above this level, leaving very little buffer for longs.

4-hour level: This is the most critical window for the long strategy today. CCI at -121.23, already in oversold territory (CCI below -100 generally indicates oversold), suggesting a higher probability of a short-term rebound. WR at -93.18, also in extreme oversold territory. ADX at 36.99, indicating strong trend momentum, meaning the current decline has sufficient energy, but the oversold state suggests the momentum may soon exhaust. SAR at $2,318.11, well above the current price by about $50, indicating a bearish stop-loss line above, with the dominant trend being bearish.

The daily chart overall signal is bullish, meaning that despite the three-day short-term correction, the larger daily trend remains bullish. The daily RSI is marked as oversold, further confirming that a rebound condition is building.

In summary, ETH is currently in a "daily bullish + 1-hour bearish + 4-hour oversold + daily oversold" multi-layer oversold pattern. The dual confirmation of 4-hour CCI at -121.23 and daily RSI oversold is the core basis for today’s long operation. Historically, when CCI drops below -100, the price tends to experience a technical rebound in the short term, usually between 2%-4%. This indicates good long opportunities today, but entry should be at appropriate support levels with strict stop-losses.

3. Key Levels

Key Support Levels: $2,239 (1-hour SAR bullish stop-loss), $2,234 (24-hour low), $2,225 (oversold rebound failure critical point), $2,200 (trend reversal to bearish critical point).

Key Resistance Levels: $2,255 (15-minute SAR stop-loss, a break above indicates effective bullishness), $2,260 (yesterday’s closing price, rebound confirmation level), $2,295 (first rebound target, midpoint of the recent pullback), $2,320 (May 12 high resistance), $2,340 (May 11 high, maximum rebound target).

4. Trading Plan

Oversold Rebound Long

First Entry: When the price pulls back to around $2,235 - $2,240 and shows stabilization signals (e.g., two consecutive 15-minute bullish candles, volume picking up), enter long with 35% of total capital, target $2,295, stop-loss at $2,225. Expected profit about $55, risk-reward ratio approximately 5:1.

Second Entry: If the price stabilizes and rebounds directly in the $2,250 - $2,260 zone (without hitting the first entry zone), enter long with 30% of total capital, target $2,290, stop-loss at $2,240. Expected profit about $40, risk-reward ratio approximately 4:1.

Third Entry: If the rebound is confirmed and the price breaks above $2,295, add a small position, with 15% of total capital, target $2,320, stop-loss at $2,275. Expected profit about $25, risk-reward ratio approximately 1.7:1.

Under the oversold rebound plan, if the first operation succeeds, daily profit is about $55; if the second position adds successfully, daily profit about $95; if all three succeed, daily profit about $120. ETH’s volatility is lower than BTC, so the swing space is relatively small, and profit expectations should be adjusted downward. The core is to wait for CCI to stabilize after oversold conditions and avoid entering during the decline.

5. Risk Control and Capital Management

Position management: maximum single position no more than 35% of total capital (long strategy can slightly increase position size due to clear direction), and no more than 2 long positions at a time (batching entries). Daily maximum drawdown should not exceed 5% of total capital. When daily profit reaches 1.5% of total capital, consider reducing position size (since ETH volatility is lower than BTC, profit targets are also lowered).

Stop-loss discipline must be strictly enforced with four hard rules:

First, Technical Stop-Loss — if the price falls below $2,225, confirming oversold rebound failure, close all positions; if it falls below $2,200, confirming trend reversal to bearish, abandon longs. If the 1-hour SAR at $2,239 is broken and cannot be quickly recovered, reduce positions and wait. If the 15-minute SAR at $2,255 is broken, pause opening new positions.

Second, Time Stop-Loss — if holding a position for over 6 hours without reaching the first target at $2,295, reassess whether the rebound momentum has exhausted. If momentum weakens (volume shrinks, RSI drops below 50), actively reduce to half position.

Third, Capital Stop-Loss — if a single loss reaches 3% of the principal, close the position unconditionally, do not hold through. With ETH at about $2,268, a 3% stop-loss is roughly $68, corresponding to about $2,200, close to the trend reversal threshold.

Fourth, Trailing Stop — after reaching a profit of about 0.8% (around $18), move the stop-loss to the cost basis (break-even); after a profit of 1.5% (around $34), move the stop-loss to the profit level of 0.8% (around $2,286), locking in gains.