#DailyPolymarketHotspot

NVIDIA's May 2026 Prediction: Is the AI ​​Supercycle Still Ongoing?

NVIDIA closed around $227 after another explosive surge, briefly pushing its market capitalization above $5.5 trillion; the highest ever recorded for a publicly traded company. Wall Street now views NVIDIA not just as a semiconductor company, but as the backbone of global AI infrastructure.

Why NVIDIA Continues to Rise?

AI Spending Hasn't Slowed Down

Hyperscale companies, including cloud giants, are still significantly increasing their AI infrastructure spending. Analysts predict that AI data center investments could exceed $1.7 trillion this decade, with NVIDIA remaining the dominant GPU supplier.

CUDA Still Creates a Competitive Advantage

Much of the global AI infrastructure is still reliant on NVIDIA's CUDA ecosystem. This software advantage keeps customers tied to NVIDIA hardware even as competitors evolve.

Blackwell Demand Exceeds Supply

The current surge is largely driven by Blackwell AI systems. With enterprise AI demand continuing to accelerate, many analysts have recently raised their target prices to the $300-$380 range.

Rubin Could Extend the Cycle Until 2027

NVIDIA introduced the Rubin platform in GTC 2026, expected to be the next largest AI computing architecture after Blackwell. 

Event Card — Key Catalysts

Date/Event Why it Matters Market Impact
May 20, 2026 Earnings + Blackwell guidance Very high volatility
Rubin launch updates Future AI dominance narrative Long-term bullish trend
China's export policy Risk of AI chip restrictions Downward trend if tightened
Fed interest rate decisions Valuation sensitivity Mega-cap impacts tech companies
AI data center capital expenditure trends Core growth driver Determines the continuation of the uptrend

My NVIDIA Price Prediction (May 2026)

Scenario Probability Price Target
Bear scenario 20% $160–190
Base scenario 50% $300–340
Bull scenario 30% $400–480

Base Scenario: $320 per share

* 40% more upside
* Market capitalization around $7.5–8 trillion

This is ambitious This is a prediction, but not impossible if the following conditions are met:

* If AI spending continues to increase
* If NVIDIA maintains over 75% market share of AI GPUs
* If profit margins remain at elite levels
* If Rubin is successfully launched

Risks Underestimated by Investors

1. Valuation is Extremely High

The stock is currently priced for near-perfect performance.

At these levels:

* Even strong earnings could be disappointing
* Any slowdown could quickly trigger a 20-30% correction

2. Risk of an AI Bubble is Increasing

Some strategists are increasingly comparing the current AI rally to the internet bubble of the late 1990s. Semiconductor stocks are projected to significantly outperform the overall market by 2026.

3. Competition is Increasing

* Custom AI chips from hyper-scale companies
* AMD acceleration
* Geopolitical/export restrictions
* Power and infrastructure bottlenecks

Nevertheless, NVIDIA is technologically far ahead for now.

My Trading Ideas

Bullish Momentum Setup

* Trend remains bullish above $210
* Likely target for momentum investors:

* $250

* then $300+

* then around $350, the target zone for analysts

NVIDIA is currently trading as:

* a macro AI index,
* a momentum asset,
* and a geopolitical tech proxy.

This means:

* tremendous bullish momentum,
* but sharp corrections are normal.

Even in a long-term bull market, a 15-20% pullback after gains wouldn't be surprising.

My Opinion

I believe NVIDIA is still in the middle of the AI ​​infrastructure supercycle – not the end.

The market is pricing NVIDIA as:

"The power provider of the AI ​​age."

This narrative may last longer than most expect.

But from here on:

* earnings will likely become more volatile,
* uptrends will be sharper,
* corrections will be deeper.

My Final Estimate

May 2026 Target:

$320–380

If AI spending continues to grow exponentially, the upper limit could be reached surprisingly quickly.

If earnings or capital expenditure growth disappoints, the stock could temporarily fall back to levels such as:

$180–200

Long-term trend:

* bullish,
* but increasingly volatile.