Tomorrow, May 15, 2026.

Washington will see two developments—technical changes in sound, but far harsher than any black swan:

First: a “Vosh” sits into the Federal Reserve chair’s office, and Powell leaves.

Second: Congress formally reviews an amendment—

Cut the Fed’s “dual mandate” of more than 40 years down to a “single mandate.”

What is the dual mandate?

Control inflation + secure employment.

What is the single mandate?

Only: control inflation.

Many people are still discussing this “Vosh”:

“He used to study law, served as a Fed governor, and is known for criticizing easing…”

Stop.

The truly terrifying part isn’t this Vosh’s personality—it’s lawmakers turning his personality into law.

Historically, no matter how hawkish the Fed chair was, when hit with a recession, a stock market crash, and a surge in unemployment, they could always pull out the reason of “protecting jobs” and cut rates in an orderly fashion.

This is an institutional soft constraint—there’s always a way to ease up.

Now that route has been physically dismantled.

“When employment data turns bad, the Fed will soften.”

“It can’t stay hardline forever before the midterm elections.”

“At worst, it drops into Q4—eventually they’ll loosen.”

These logics are all built on the old version of the Fed.

So what is the new version of the Fed?

A single-goal machine with no employment worries, no political swings (in the short term), and no historical baggage.

You’re still using “Powell-style thinking” to calculate Vosh’s probability of rate cuts—like trying to charge an iPhone 20 with the charging cable for an iPhone 4. The interfaces don’t even match.

So when will rate cuts happen?

Based on Vosh’s own stated public position + the new legislative direction + current inflation data:

As long as core PCE doesn’t return to below 2.2% and hold it there for 3 months, even the smallest crack in the door for rate cuts won’t open.

Not the 3.5%, 3.0% that the market expects—nor even 2.8%.

It will only truly return to around 2%.

Given the stickiness of service inflation, the timeline could be—

No chance in 2026—maybe luck in 2027.

That means:

A recession with a surge in unemployment → no rate cuts

US stocks fall 20% → no rate cuts

The crypto market is cut in half → no rate cuts

Unless inflation concedes defeat.

US stocks are still propping up at high levels, and BTC is still fantasizing about a “macro dovish shift.”

Once the market realizes—this isn’t Powell wavering; it’s the replacement of the entire underlying logic of the Fed—that’s when the real pain starts.#Gate广场五月交易分享 #美国4月PPI同比暴涨6% $BTC $ETH