5.14 Market Analysis

Trend: Short

Short-term intra-day strategy for today:

Long positions: Buy at 2243, stop loss at 2231, take profit at 2273

Short positions: Enter short at 2278, stop loss at 2298, take profit at 2206

Technical Analysis

BTC:

Weekly level: Has never broken above MA30, not even a wick, but the market has reached this point, also with short-term resonance support from MA5 and EMA20.

Daily level: Three consecutive bearish candles have pushed the market into a bearish trend, but the EMA20 on the daily chart still provides some support. Since April 7, this moving average zone has not been broken, with the key focus on whether it can be effectively broken today.

12H level: An M-top structure is gradually forming; yesterday’s neckline was effectively broken. Although there is some support, upward potential is limited. A downward move toward 74896-75500 is a high-probability event (forming an M-top).

4H level: Short-term rebound needed, but space is limited. The key area to watch is 78821-79034; if touched, those interested in left-side trading can short here. Personally, today I will only do short-term ETH trades, so I won’t elaborate further.

ETH:

Since April 7, the daily chart has first effectively broken below EMA50, officially turning the trend bearish. Yesterday’s rally was likely to shake out short positions. With the recent trend clarified, we analyze on smaller timeframes.

12H level: Once again, a bearish engulfing candle with increased volume at the MA120 level, which also resonates with the support zone 2236-2273. Yesterday’s report already provided a take-profit point at 2233.66; readers can verify in the previous article. This level has support. After closing short positions at the profit target, today’s intraday trading saw a bounce off 2237, with a short-term long at 2243. The initial target for profit is near the support zone’s upper edge at 2273. If upward potential opens, short positions can be added between 2273-2287, with my personal order around 2278.

4H level: Last night, a long wick bearish candle broke the silence, officially signaling the start of a bearish trend. Structurally, the next support zone is strong, whether at the upper edge around 2204 or the lower edge near 2160.

Smaller timeframes may show rebounds intraday, but with limited strength. Resistance from moving averages and supply zones objectively exists.

Summary:

The trend is now clearer. The biggest uncertainty today—the Clarity Act—has temporarily ended with a large installment. Going forward, whether it’s Wosh’s inauguration or Trump’s visit to China, from a historical perspective, both are bearish signals. Additionally, US stocks have already completed the first half of the week’s rally. According to the expected script, both technically and fundamentally, a decline in financial assets in the second half of the week is highly probable. We should respect the trend, trade long-term for short-term, and short positions will be the main theme in the coming days.

Support and Resistance Zones:

BTC

Support: 78156-79257, 76588-77601, 74806-75500, 73024-74345

Resistance: 80598-82656, 83590-85140, 86380-87273

ETH

Support: 2236-2273, 2160-2204, 2088-2140, 1990-2041

Resistance: 2348-2390, 2423-2475, 2550-2616