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‍# U.S. April PPI Year-over-Year Surges 6%
Following the explosive CPI data in April, U.S. April PPI data has once again made headlines. It shows a 6% year-over-year increase, far exceeding market expectations of 4.8% and the revised previous value of 4.3%, reaching the highest level since December 2022; month-over-month up 1.4%, the largest single-month increase since March 2022. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) rose 5.2% YoY and 1% MoM. This data further confirms that inflationary pressures are rebounding across the board after the CPI exceeded expectations in April.

The rise is mainly driven by soaring energy costs (due to Middle East conflicts disrupting oil supply, with energy prices up 7.8% MoM) and intensified service sector inflation (such as transportation and warehousing services up 5% MoM).

‌👉 Overview of Event Impact

1.‌ Spread of Inflationary Pressures‌: The unexpected PPI increase indicates that production costs are accelerating transmission to consumer prices, with goods and services prices rising in tandem, forming a “dual-wheel” inflation pattern. Upstream intermediate demand goods prices rose 9.4% YoY, showing that cost pressures have penetrated the supply chain and are not a short-term phenomenon.

‌2. Federal Reserve Policy Shift to Hawkish‌: The data completely shattered expectations of inflation easing, significantly cooling market bets on rate cuts by the Fed. The anticipated first rate cut has been pushed back from July 2026 to September, with the number of rate cuts this year reduced from three to one or two, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike within the year increased to about 50%. The Fed may maintain high interest rates (current benchmark rate 3.50%-3.75%) longer to prevent inflation from spiraling out of control.

‌3. Macroeconomic Risks‌: Elevated energy prices (such as gasoline up 15.6% MoM) combined with rising service costs could intensify corporate profit pressures and living costs, suppress consumer demand, and potentially drag down economic growth in the long term. However, in the short term, the resilience of the U.S. economy (such as a tight labor market) supports room for policy tightening.

👉 Impact on Bitcoin and Gold:

1. Gold Market‌:

‌Clear Short-term Pressure‌: PPI data reinforce hawkish expectations for the Fed, driving the dollar index higher (to a one-week high) and U.S. Treasury yields up (30-year yield surpassing 5%, hitting a new high since July 2023). As a non-yield asset, gold’s attractiveness diminishes, with prices falling from a three-week high (about $4,774 per ounce) to around $4,700 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures briefly dropping to $4,676 per ounce.

Bitcoin Market‌:

‌Risk Asset Sell-off‌: PPI data boost the likelihood of Fed rate hikes (market pricing shows a 39% chance), weakening risk appetite. As a highly volatile asset, Bitcoin’s price fell below the $80,000 mark from over $80,000, with a decline of over 1.6% in 24 hours, and the overall crypto market liquidation exceeding $63 million. Technical analysis shows a “rising wedge” bearish pattern; if support at $75,000 is broken, it could dip to the $70,000–73,500 range.

‌Liquidity Tightening Impact‌: The high-interest-rate environment reduces market liquidity, leading to large-scale liquidations of leveraged positions in crypto markets. Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. stocks (especially tech stocks) has increased; although the Nasdaq hit new highs, inflation data may trigger a correction in growth stocks, indirectly suppressing Bitcoin.