May 14 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

News:
The key event yesterday was the U.S. PPI data far exceeding expectations (annual rate about 5.2%-6%, expected only 4.3%), triggering market concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, directly suppressing risk assets, with Bitcoin weakening in tandem with U.S. stocks and tech stocks.

Trump - Summit (Beijing talks) involved tariffs, rare earths, Middle East issues, market expects potential positive news for risk assets, but short-term expectations were not met.

CB CEO positive statement on the Senate crypto bill approaching a key vote, long-term regulatory benefits still unfolding.

Capital:
ETF net inflow trend slowed but remains strong overall, whale activity provides support. Bitcoin spot ETF capital flows showed divergence yesterday, with some institutions taking profits or observing due to inflation data. Around May 13, some ETFs (like FBTC, ARKB) recorded small net outflows of about $20-230M in a single day, but the full April month still saw approximately $2.44 billion in net inflows, with a total net inflow exceeding $59 billion by 2026 (holding about 756k BTC).

Blackstone IBIT, Fidelity FBTC remain the main inflow drivers, with some proprietary channels (like MSBT) quickly accumulating over 3,300 BTC in a single day.

On-chain data shows that the dormant whale from 2013 has recently been slightly active (around $40 million around May 11), but the destination is not exchanges, mostly internal transfers, not creating selling pressure; overall whale net buying remains high (one of the largest monthly net buys in the past 30 days).

Technical:
Yesterday’s morning session, as mentioned, was mainly volatile, and as expected, the price found support at 79,200, forming a support level. Currently, the range remains between 79,200 and 82,500. However, attention should still be paid to the risk of daily high-level divergence and potential retracement to the zero axis. In summary, moving forward, if the four-hour rebound fails to break through 80,400, downward risk should be monitored, with support around 77,200 to 79,200.