#Gate广场五月交易分享 #BTC

Bitcoin Tests Critical $79,145 Level

Bitcoin is facing a critical test with the $79,145 support level.

The price channel is still downward sloping; the level being watched for a strong uptrend is clear.

Investor profitability rates and increasing selling pressure point to a potential profit-taking.

US inflation data and spot demand could determine the market direction for $BTC.

Bitcoin's recent price action above $79,000 has not yet provided a permanent bottom confirmation. Technically, Bitcoin is still within a correction channel, and a definitive trend reversal cannot be discussed.

When evaluating Bitcoin's daily chart, it was noted that a bearish channel formation has been ongoing in the market since the February lows. Accordingly, the recent upward movement should only be considered a reaction rally within the channel until the price definitively breaks out of it.

Critical Resistances and Possible Scenarios

Bitcoin recently tested the resistance at the upper band of the channel, reaching levels around $79,660. This region, particularly with the rally that began from the April low, is seen as a point where sellers have historically entered the market. For Bitcoin, $79,145 is the key level to watch. Accordingly, a daily close below this level could weaken the upward momentum and highlight the possibility of a reversal from the channel resistance.

If a close below $79,145 occurs, the midpoint of the channel will become the new support level to watch. Failure to hold this level increases the potential for the price to fall towards the lower band of the channel. Therefore, a continuation of short-term corrections in the market may occur.
Beyond technical analysis, on-chain data also points to noteworthy developments in the Bitcoin market. Short-term investors' unrealized profit margins rose to 17.7% as of May 5th, reaching their highest level since June 2025. This recent surge suggests a higher likelihood of profit-taking; this ratio was previously seen near the 200-day moving average in March 2022, followed by a price drop.

On the other hand, daily realized profits reached 14,600 BTC on May 4th, the highest level since December 10, 2025. This indicates that many investors took advantage of the recent surge to sell.

US Data, Spot Demand, and Market Reactions

Activity is also noticeable in the spot market. As of the end of April, the Bitcoin price premium turned negative, meaning demand in the US spot market is lower than global averages. Although spot demand contracted by 91,000 BTC in April and recovered to 11,000 BTC in May, it has not yet moved into positive territory. The recent increase in demand is reportedly coming mostly from the futures market.
On the macroeconomic front, it is reported that inflation figures from the US are putting pressure on the market. The producer price index rose to 6% year-on-year, while core PPI reached 5.2%. In light of this data, it is assessed that the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates in the near future has decreased in the cryptocurrency market, and that overall liquidity conditions in Bitcoin remain tight.

Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 index in the last three months. During this period, BTC rose by approximately 20%, while the S&P 500 increased by 8%; gold, on the other hand, declined by 6%. Thus, it has been observed that Bitcoin has maintained its strong performance despite the challenges for risky assets.
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