TRC20-USDT issuance hits a new high, why do retail investors still remain bearish on TRX?

As of May 13, 2026, according to Gate market data, TRX is priced at approximately $0.349, with a cumulative increase of about 26% over the past three months. On-chain, the issuance of TRC20-USDT surpassed 89.3 billion tokens on May 12, reaching a new all-time high. Meanwhile, Santiment data shows retail investor sentiment remains bearish, with social media discussions about TRON mainly questioning its prospects. In this complex landscape of improving fundamentals contrasted with persistent market sentiment divergence, TRON’s price movement has become a noteworthy case study in the current crypto market.

What scale has stablecoin settlement volume reached?

According to Messari’s Q1 2026 report, the TRON network’s USDT-based settlement volume reached about $2 trillion, a 4.9% increase quarter-over-quarter to $20k. Against the backdrop of the current TRC20-USDT issuance surpassing 89.3 billion, TRON has become one of the largest circulating channels for USDT by supply. The network’s average daily transaction count is 10.9 million, with daily active addresses increasing by 13.7% to 3.2 million.

Additionally, PaymentScan data shows that in April 2026, the total global cryptocurrency credit card transaction volume was $6.5 billion, with TRON ecosystem contributing 32% of that share, surpassing the combined volume of Ethereum and BNB Chain. These figures collectively point to a conclusion: TRON’s role as a stablecoin payment infrastructure has now transcended purely on-chain metrics.

How to interpret the ongoing bearish signals from retail investors

Santiment’s latest report indicates that even though TRX first broke above $0.35 since September 2025, social media discussions about TRON remain predominantly bearish and skeptical. Many retail traders compare the current rally to AI tokens, themed tokens, and emerging Layer-2 projects, arguing that TRON lacks compelling narratives.

This sentiment roughly falls into two categories. First, controversies related to the founder continue to ferment, with many traders associating TRON with aggressive promotional tactics seen in previous cycles. Second, TRON’s ecosystem expansion mainly focuses on stablecoin infrastructure and yield-generating products, rather than retail applications or hot narratives. Santiment notes that this long-standing hesitancy might actually provide some buffer for sustained market strength.

Is institutional participation undergoing structural change?

Recent institutional developments are worth noting. The Moscow Exchange (MOEX) officially launched TRX futures on May 13, 2026. Previously, the exchange had listed Bitcoin and Ethereum futures; adding XRP, SOL, and TRX to its derivatives system marks another expansion of traditional financial institutions’ engagement with crypto assets. These futures are cash-settled and available only to qualified investors.

Meanwhile, TRON has joined Mastercard’s crypto partner program, and US-regulated crypto bank Anchorage Digital announced support for TRX custody services. In March 2026, the SEC withdrew its lawsuit against the TRON Foundation, ending long-standing regulatory uncertainty. These developments collectively suggest an increasing willingness among institutions to participate.

Could persistent short-selling set the stage for short squeeze conditions?

The ongoing bearish outlook among retail traders, contrasted with steady price gains, creates a unique market divergence. According to Santiment, when a large number of retail traders are heavily betting on a particular direction, the market often becomes fragile; however, the widespread hesitation about TRON among retail investors seems to mirror the price trend in an atypical way.

Nevertheless, a short squeeze requires specific market conditions. Currently, there is insufficient data on TRX short positions in derivatives markets to verify this. From a risk perspective, there are also signs of divergence between price and on-chain activity. CryptoQuant data shows that TRX’s price has risen about 10% over the past month, while total on-chain token transfers decreased from approximately 17.3 billion to 12.2 billion. This suggests that part of the price increase may be driven more by off-chain capital inflows or token holding strategies rather than actual network usage growth.

What is the difference between ecosystem growth and external narratives?

Since 2026, the main narratives in the crypto market have centered on AI agents, themed tokens, and Layer-2 scaling solutions. In contrast, TRON’s core growth engine has consistently focused on stablecoin infrastructure and yield products. Messari’s report shows that TRON’s total value locked (TVL) increased by 7.1% quarter-over-quarter to $4.7 billion, but the TVL of the largest protocol, JustLend, declined by 10.3% to $3.3 billion, indicating liquidity is shifting toward yield-related protocols.

This relatively “plain” growth pattern makes it harder for TRON to gain attention amid mainstream narrative hype. However, the continued on-chain growth suggests that as market attention shifts back to fundamentals, the value of TRON’s stablecoin infrastructure might be re-rated.

Which risk factors warrant ongoing monitoring?

Despite positive on-chain data and increasing institutional involvement, several risks should be watched closely. First, if the divergence between price and on-chain activity persists or widens, it could weaken the underlying support for price appreciation. Second, TRON’s high market share in USDT transfers ties its ecosystem health closely to Tether’s operational stability, which remains an external variable. Third, although market sentiment is currently predominantly bearish among retail investors, a sudden shift in sentiment could trigger rapid volatility.

Summary

The issuance of TRC20-USDT surpassing 89.3 billion tokens, Messari’s report showing nearly $2 trillion in stablecoin settlement volume in Q1, and MOEX’s launch of TRX futures all point to ongoing deepening of TRON’s role in stablecoin settlement infrastructure. Meanwhile, the widespread bearish sentiment among retail traders contrasted with steady price growth presents one of the most intriguing divergence signals in the current market. The divergence between price and on-chain activity warrants continued observation, but rising institutional participation and regulatory clarity form potential long-term narrative variables. Until market sentiment turns optimistic, TRON’s future development path remains to be further tracked.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What does the surpassing of 89.3 billion TRC20-USDT issuance mean for TRX?

The continuous expansion of TRC20-USDT issuance reflects ongoing demand for TRON as a stablecoin settlement channel. Higher USDT supply indicates a more solid foundation for on-chain transfer activity, providing positive support for TRX as a network resource consumption medium.

Q: How should we interpret Santiment’s bearish signals from retail investors?

Santiment points out that despite retail sentiment remaining negative, TRX’s price has increased by 26% over the past three months. This framework suggests that when most retail traders remain hesitant or doubtful, the market’s reverse pressure is relatively small; prices often trend upward before widespread participation.

Q: What is the significance of MOEX launching TRX futures?

MOEX’s cash-settled TRX futures, launched on May 13, 2026, are only available to qualified investors. This marks TRX’s first entry into a national-level mainstream exchange’s derivatives system, potentially boosting institutional participation and market liquidity.

Q: What risks should be monitored regarding TRX’s current price trend?

CryptoQuant data shows that during recent price increases, on-chain token transfer volume declined significantly, creating a divergence between price and on-chain activity. If this trend continues, the intrinsic support for sustained price growth could be challenged.

Q: How does TRON differ from current mainstream narratives like AI, Meme tokens, and Layer-2?

In the first half of 2026, the main crypto narratives focused on AI agents, themed tokens, and Layer-2 scaling solutions. TRON’s growth logic remains centered on stablecoin infrastructure and yield products. This pragmatic approach, while less hyped, maintains steady on-chain usage growth.