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Circle's stock CRCL, listed in March, has fallen 19% so far.
19%? That's not a small number.
What is the market afraid of?
It's afraid of tomorrow—May 14th, the vote in the Senate Banking Committee.
The 309-page CLARITY bill draft, honestly, most of it is nonsense.
But there's one sentence you should pay close attention to:
Section 404 — Prohibits any regulated entity from paying "any form of interest or yield" to stablecoin holders.
Cash won't do, tokens won't do, even changing the ways to pay money is not allowed.
In other words: Don't expect to "lie back and earn" on USDC anymore.
Guess who is pushing for this behind the scenes?
Banks.
The dollars you keep in the bank, earning a 0.5% savings interest, is considered high.
But if you transfer to Coinbase, do nothing, and hold USDC, you can earn 3.5%.
How can banks not be anxious?
They've already sent thousands of lobbying letters to the Senate, eager to have this clause written into law tomorrow.
The bill isn't completely closed off.
It leaves a loophole:
Rewards linked to "real trading activity" can be retained.
What does that mean?
If you get rewards because of the "transfer" action—say, earning 0.1% back on each payment—that might count as activity rewards, not interest.
If you earn interest just by "holding"—that route is blocked.
So if Circle and Coinbase can quickly pivot from "holding and earning" to "paying and cashback," there's still a chance.
But how wide this loophole remains depends on tomorrow's amendments negotiations.
Elizabeth Warren holds over 40 amendments, including one called "Central Bank Main Account Ban"—which is the ultimate weapon for traditional banks to cut off crypto infrastructure.
If that passes, all other transformations are pointless.
Let's be real:
First, tomorrow isn't the end of the world.
Even if the bill passes, there's a one-year transition period.
You can still earn 3.5% for a year—don't panic.
Second, Polymarket predicts a 67%-75% chance of final passage in 2026.
In other words, it's highly likely to happen—just a matter of time.
Third, what really matters tomorrow are two things:
The vote distribution (bipartisan? or an overwhelming majority?)
Among Warren's 40+ amendments, are any related to strengthening the "interest ban"?