【U.S. stocks are going wild and pushing to new highs, and the danger signals for Bitcoin are becoming increasingly clear】

There isn’t really much that can be said about the current market. Bitcoin is basically moving within the framework we discussed earlier; nothing has come out to be particularly shocking. You can flip back to the previous article—Bitcoin was trading within the angle formed by the trend lines. A direct plunge down was unrealistic, and it would have to go down again after first reaching the area near the previous high. Those were essentially “forecasts based on the obvious,” and they’ve all come true as of today!

For the upcoming market, it’s not expected to be as messy as before. The time that bulls and bears have spent stuck in a standoff here has already been long enough. Add to that this week has quite a few major events— the Fed’s leadership change, Trump’s visit to China with good news already landing, and on top of that, U.S. stocks are going berserk—and it really has a feel of “accelerating toward the top.” Overall, I think the likelihood of a move downward, and gradually accelerating as it goes, is getting higher and higher.

Historically speaking, after the Fed changes its leadership, things never turn out well for the market. I don’t know if the frenzy in U.S. stocks is also because they’re afraid there won’t be another chance to perform after the leadership change… Trump’s visit to China was positive news before, and once that good news becomes real, it naturally turns into bad news. And with CPI coming in above expectations, rate cuts are basically off the table. The financial markets are giving off a “before an incoming storm, the air is thick with wind” vibe—everyone should still make mental preparations.

Finally, let’s talk about Bitcoin’s position. Bitcoin has a small support around 79840 (it already dipped to test it last night and then bounced). After a small rebound, if it comes down again, the next areas are 78200 and 77000. If 77000 is broken effectively, it’s very likely to accelerate toward around 73000. Resistance is near the previous high above, around 83000, but it’s hard to get there—so we’ll mainly watch what the price action does!

Trading suggestion: At the moment, my personal positions are basically fully out. I’ll wait for a bigger pullback before considering re-entering with spot.

#美国4月CPI上涨3.8% $BTC #沃什确认出任美联储主席 $ETH