Last night, the U.S. April CPI year-over-year rose to 3.8%, and core CPI also exceeded expectations, directly shattering the hope of rate cuts this year. The market is now not only not cutting rates but even starting to bet on rate hikes. Tomorrow (May 15), Powell will officially step down as Chair, with Waller taking over. Waller advocates for a combination of "balance sheet reduction + rate cuts," which sounds like easing, but balance sheet reduction draining liquidity is actually tightening. Coupled with Powell remaining as a board member to maintain checks and balances, the Fed's internal disagreements are the largest in 34 years. During this transition period, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are likely to fluctuate at high levels, putting pressure on risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).

News of Trump’s visit to China has fermented, providing upward momentum, possibly leading to a small rally.

Stress test (around the 15th): The Fed officially changes leadership, Waller’s policy path becomes clearer, and combined with residual CPI effects, the market will reprice liquidity expectations, putting risk assets under pressure.

Trend judgment: Overall, it’s a "rise first, then suppress" oscillation pattern. It is recommended to watch tonight’s preliminary communique of China-U.S. talks; if only the framework is discussed without major deals, the high sentiment point might be the short-term profit-taking opportunity. #美国4月CPI上涨3.8% $ETH