Safe-haven support + Weakening US dollar—gold bulls’ trend is firmly established, aiming at 4800

Yesterday, gold first fell and then rose, with the low reaching $4638. Afterwards, it rebounded quickly and ultimately closed near $4720. Overall, when gold prices pulled back, buy-side demand was very positive; the bears had little strength. The bulls held onto key support, the market’s focus moved steadily higher, and the uptrend was not broken.

On the news front, there are currently two core factors supporting gold:

1. The continued build-up of rate-cut expectations for the Federal Reserve: the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year, and the US Dollar Index is trending weaker. When the US dollar weakens, gold priced in dollars becomes cheaper, attracting more buyers, which is directly positive for gold prices.

2. Geopolitical tensions driving safe-haven demand: global geopolitical conflicts are still ongoing, and market risk-aversion sentiment has not faded. Gold is a traditional safe-haven asset; once conditions become tense, capital flows into gold, providing support for prices.

In addition, global central banks have been continuously buying gold—especially the Chinese central bank, which has increased its holdings for several consecutive months. In the long run, this provides a floor for gold prices, leaving limited room for further pullbacks.
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