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I recently learned about a quite interesting market theory from the 19th century called "Periods When to Make Money."
This was reportedly developed and published by Samuel Benner—a farmer and businessman from Ohio—in a 1875 book on price forecasts.
Later, George Titch also adjusted and popularized it more broadly.
How does this chart work?
It divides the years into three main groups based on the economic cycle:
Group A - Panic Years:
These years are forecasted to experience financial crises, with sharp price declines.
The list includes 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, 2035, 2053.
Group B - Prosperity Years:
This is a period of good economic performance, high prices, suitable for selling assets.
Years like 1926, 1935, 1946, 1953, 1962, 1972, 1980, 1989, 1999, 2007, 2016, 2026, 2034, 2043, 2053.
Group C - Difficult Years:
Low prices, ideal for buying and holding until the prosperity phase.
Including 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1986, 1996, 2006, 2012, 2023.
The person behind this theory is Samuel Benner, an Ohio businessman, who tried to find repeating patterns in the economy based on historical observations.
The idea is that if you understand "periods when to make money," you can optimize your buy and sell strategies.
But is it accurate?
That’s the big question.
This theory is based on the assumption that economic cycles repeat and can be forecasted.
However, in reality, these cycles are never perfectly regular.
There are too many variables—economic policies, global events, technological changes—that can break the old patterns.
Most financial analysts today acknowledge that short-term market prediction is extremely difficult.
The "periods when to make money" in this classical theory are really just a historical reference, not a foolproof formula.
Overall, this chart is an interesting historical attempt to understand the market, but it shouldn’t be viewed as an accurate forecast.
A safer approach is to focus on long-term investment strategies and diversification, rather than trying to time the market based on theories like this.