20%, if this month’s positive trend continues, it will set a historic pattern of three consecutive months of positive returns in March, April, and May. Ethereum moves in sync, with a monthly increase of about 15%. The core logic driving this round of market rally is the continuous net inflow of funds into the US spot Bitcoin ETF—$1.97 billion in April alone, hitting a new high for the year, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for $2.01 billion; combined with expectations that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will step down on May 15 and Kevin Warsh, known as the "crypto-friendly" successor, will take over, the market is shifting from a "defensive regulatory" stance to a "regulatory integration and innovation" policy direction. This article provides an in-depth analysis from three dimensions: macro policy, capital flows, and technical structure, and proposes short- to medium-term trading strategies and risk warnings.

1. Macro Policy Shift: Fed Chair Change and Liquidity Easing Expectations
On May 15, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will officially step down, and Kevin Warsh’s appointment is seen by the market as a significant turning point in US cryptocurrency policy. During Powell’s tenure, Bitcoin was always regarded as a "speculative asset," while Warsh is considered by industry insiders to be the "most crypto-savvy" Fed Chair in history. His appointment signals a shift in US cryptocurrency policy from "defensive and preventive" to "integrative and innovative."
This personnel change occurs against the backdrop of major adjustments to the Fed’s liquidity tools. According to previous policy trends, the Fed has canceled the daily $500 billion limit on the Standing Repo Facility (SRP), allowing banks to borrow from the Fed without restrictions using government bonds as collateral, significantly raising the market liquidity ceiling. If Warsh further promotes a dovish monetary policy stance, decreasing borrowing costs will directly benefit high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Investors should closely monitor market volatility around May 15. Historical experience shows that major personnel transitions often come with short-term liquidity disturbances, but the medium-term direction is likely to favor easing.
2. Institutional Capital Inflows: ETF Continuous Net Flows Reshape Market Structure
In April, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded the highest monthly capital inflow since 2026, with net inflows reaching $1.97 billion, pushing the total ETF holdings past $100.5 billion. Among them, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw a monthly net inflow of about $2.01 billion, increasing assets under management to #Gate广场五月交易分享 .