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If we combine these three charts, especially the yield curve and the spread curve, several conclusions can be clearly drawn:
1. The market is significantly reducing expectations of rate cuts (currently Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have also explicitly stated that the earliest rate cuts will be at the end of 2026 or 2027).
2. The central level of interest rates is generally moving upward.
3. Whether the 10-year yield can return to 4.3% will be a key point.
Additionally, from a volatility perspective, N is significantly higher than VIX; at the same time, bond volatility and VIX move inversely. This indicates that technology stocks have to some extent borne interest rate sensitivity risk, and if the 10-year yield continues to rise, a VIX catch-up cannot be ruled out.