Tiezhu

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Recently, I published a column in Newsweek.
American media still have a strong interest in Asian perspectives or viewpoints based on Asia.
However, the topic of Hong Kong stablecoins isn't really something to discuss, because a common question from American media is: Do you think Asian countries will still have an advantage in stablecoins once the Clarify Act passes?
I can't say there are no advantages, nor can I say there are advantages. Ultimately, the conclusion remains: overall, the landscape won't change, but locally, everyone still has their own space to survive.
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30-year government bond auction, surpassing 5% again after 2007.
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Samsung is on strike; the longer the strike lasts, the more the memory prices will rise. This is because it takes at least 3-4 weeks for the wafer factories to resume operations and return to normal production levels.
Currently, negotiations have been ongoing since the 21st, with an 18-day strike. If it truly lasts 18 days, memory prices will surge next month.
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If we combine these three charts, especially the yield curve and the spread curve, several conclusions can be clearly drawn:
1. The market is significantly reducing expectations of rate cuts (currently Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have also explicitly stated that the earliest rate cuts will be at the end of 2026 or 2027).
2. The central level of interest rates is generally moving upward.
3. Whether the 10-year yield can return to 4.3% will be a key point.
Additionally, from a volatility perspective, N is significantly higher than VIX; at the same time, bond volatility and VIX move inverse
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Many years ago, when I was doing semiconductor investment research, at that time, visiting wafer factories and requiring localization, wafer fabs would set up a production line with purely domestic equipment, but actual production still relied on overseas equipment.
As for EUV, as a product representing the industrial miracle and engineering limit on Earth today. China’s pursuit is optimistic to estimate 8-10 years, which is already very, very optimistic. Because China does not have Zeiss and Trumpf. These two German industrial giants are the backbone behind EUV, the unchallenged kings.
Ev
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In a world where everyone is an investment research analyst, good news is everywhere.
Those teachers who hold semiconductors and storage are happily saying: Buffett’s myth will be broken—sailing the raging wave of Ai, they’ve gone the wrong direction. Today’s value investing is about finding reasons that are even “more expensive” within the “expensive.”
PE isn’t enough, because you haven’t yet entered the main storyline of the market.
How could memory just be memory? It’s the new gold, the new oil—the foundation at the bottom of civilization.
Semiconductors are no longer just semicondu
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Apart from storage, if you ignore the CPU, you'll probably miss this wave as well. The revaluation of CPUs is accelerating.
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Liquidity pressure is gradually easing.
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Using DS V4 PRO for analysis, the overall accuracy has indeed improved a lot compared to before.
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On the road of fixing bugs and data governance, there's no turning back. Front-end developers no longer have time to think about it.
Fortunately, the final result is getting closer and closer.
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After training, the analytical ability of V4 Pro is still good.
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Teacher Fu Peng is being criticized, and the biggest winner may become Teacher Zhao Bei. Here is a brief summary of some of Teacher Fu Peng's representative views over the past few years.
1. After 2024, Teacher Fu Peng believes that Trump's policies will strengthen domestic demand in the U.S., bring inflationary pressure, and change some of the Federal Reserve's assumptions.
2. China's economy mainly suffers from insufficient domestic demand, not lack of confidence. Therefore, the focus of A-shares is on the recovery of returns.
3. Emphasizes the importance of the U.S. Treasury yield cur
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Watched Warsh's hearing. The core priorities upon taking office are threefold:
1. Abandon forward guidance. — More volatile market swings
2. Use a truncated mean model as an inflation indicator. — Faster room for rate cuts
3. Shrink the balance sheet. — Tighter liquidity transmission
As a result, short-term yields decline, long-term yields rise; the dollar weakens + liquidity tightening coexist.
Therefore, cheap assets will become even cheaper.
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On the day of upgrading to Opus 4.7, I spent a lot of time.
All on one task.
Checking the code of Opus 4.6 and fixing bugs.
Tiring...
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I discussed a new module for a website with Claude. I wrote nearly 1,000 words just describing the requirements.
After the discussion, it said your plan is very valuable and also very ambitious.
For the overall implementation, it will require more than four Claude Code sessions, each lasting at least 3 hours.
Let's get started, while KYC hasn't become widespread yet.
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Since its development, the website has gradually approached my vision of a macro research platform. It essentially condenses my understanding of macroeconomics over the past period. It includes:
1. More focus on cross-asset linkage analysis and cross-sectional analysis.
2. Greater emphasis on liquidity transmission logic, with a comprehensive assessment of the strength of offshore, onshore, and U.S. dollar intermediary capabilities; at the same time, it enhances the analysis of SOFR, SRF, and central bank swaps, especially the quantile distribution of SOFR.
Additionally, micro-level liquidity
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Updated features:
1. Analyzed the benefiting assets based on the current existing framework
2. Focused primarily on cross-asset analysis
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Recent coding progress in the past few days.
1. The website has been officially deployed with a .net domain.
2. Developed a crawler that added 30 volatility indicators to the website, covering the volatility levels of major asset classes.
3. Working on a comprehensive volatility analysis framework for AI. After integrating the API at the backend, it will automatically analyze data updates.
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