Tiezhu

Seriously, everyone should stop believing in the so-called independence of the Federal Reserve.
Independence is a narrative, not a fact. The Fed’s independence is relative; it has not actually detached itself from fiscal policy and operated independently.
It only means that the Fed has the authority to independently exercise monetary policy tools, but that does not mean its exercise of power is free from real-world constraints, especially fiscal constraints.
The coordination of fiscal and monetary policy is inevitable for modern economic development. Under normal circumstances, everyone makes

Last night’s discussion in the group. Let’s take a closer look at gold pricing and why the relationship between gold and real interest rates has changed.
1. Gold and interest rates have traditionally been inversely related. There are two underlying reasons. First, gold is a zero-yield asset, so when interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases on a relative basis, and gold should therefore be sold. Second, rising real interest rates are often accompanied by a stronger U.S. dollar, which also puts pressure on gold.
This was the main analytical framework used by financial

Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls are likely to come in below expectations, with both employment and core inflation weakening at the same time.

This month, we’re getting ready to go all in on posting about Wosh and the FOMC—why can’t it be as simple as a hawk/dove split? Also, why isn’t AI capex higher the better at this stage?
And the next half month will be an important phase from defense to offense. Everything is happening during the K-shaped divergence—technically, this is only the very beginning of technical introduction/penetration.

Meta renting computing power isn't something where the market can be wrong. It's basically people defending their own positions. It's just that when something goes up too much, it has to drop a bit.
As long as there are consecutive limit-ups, there will naturally be limit-downs. The only thing that needs to be distinguished is short-term, long-term, and positions.
What needs to be asked is: Is the AI narrative over? And has the narrative been fully converted into financial performance?
Conversely, even if the long-term narrative isn't over, it doesn't mean you don't need to take profits

It seems that recently, the RMB is likely to be controlled a bit, devalued slightly, to stabilize exports, and most major public funds have basically increased some QDII quotas.

Dongshan Precision’s little memo on the tape paints a near-perfect picture of the A-share ecosystem. Previously, profit-taking meant dumping into good news; now it’s almost turned into dumping into bad news.
The only difference is that the bid side is also getting “swept” up at an astonishing speed. Go ahead—taste it yourself.

I took some time to review Changxin's prospectus. A few points are quite interesting:
1. Although Mr. Zhu claims not to cash out, he has already cashed out over 2 billion yuan through Zhaoyi Innovation. Even so, given the current FOMO level, Zhaoyi Innovation will still win big.
2. From the situation of its suppliers, especially when comparing over the years. The top-ranked supplier remains chemicals, and the increase in silicon wafers is also significant.
This is very reasonable because after DDR5, chemical cleaning indeed saw a substantial rise. The ranking increase of silicon wafers is prob

Last night during the sharing, my view was that AI has no bubble.
But this bubble refers to the industry bubble.
In a low-growth era, capital will be distributed extremely unevenly, and high-growth assets that can be invested in are highly scarce.
This is the essence.
AI's super valuation is not an innovation or breakthrough in a specific field, but a source of productivity growth based on infrastructure.
Therefore, this will again create a self-reinforcing cycle of liquidity.
So, often what appears to be a bubble is linked to the current financial system and growth challenges.
A

Recently, I published a column in Newsweek.
American media still have a strong interest in Asian perspectives or viewpoints based on Asia.
However, the topic of Hong Kong stablecoins isn't really something to discuss, because a common question from American media is: Do you think Asian countries will still have an advantage in stablecoins once the Clarify Act passes?
I can't say there are no advantages, nor can I say there are advantages. Ultimately, the conclusion remains: overall, the landscape won't change, but locally, everyone still has their own space to survive.

Samsung is on strike; the longer the strike lasts, the more the memory prices will rise. This is because it takes at least 3-4 weeks for the wafer factories to resume operations and return to normal production levels.
Currently, negotiations have been ongoing since the 21st, with an 18-day strike. If it truly lasts 18 days, memory prices will surge next month.