CLARITY Act goes live with submissions tomorrow

On May 14th, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a markup vote on this 309-page bill. The mainstream market narrative: passing = BTC surges to $143K, +$15 billion in ETF net inflows (Citibank forecast).
But three key details the mainstream hasn’t mentioned:
① It requires a 60-vote supermajority to clear in the Senate. Polymarket’s probability has dropped from 80% to 62%—the odds are falling, not rising.
② Even if it passes, it must be merged with the Senate Agriculture Committee version, then proceed through the House, and then wait for the President’s signature. It’s at least 12-18 months before it truly takes effect.
③ The bill explicitly writes into law that “newly issued tokens = securities”—the SEC’s jurisdiction over altcoins isn’t being narrowed; it’s being locked in. Altcoins aren’t getting a pardon—they’re getting a conviction.
BTC today at $80,685, -1.4%. The “good news” was sold off early during the process when the odds dropped from 80% to 62%.
The day regulatory clarity arrives will be the day with the greatest uncertainty. #Gate广场五月交易分享 $BTC $ETH $XRP