#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin remains bearish in the near future; seize the last opportunity to enter!

The current market situation is noticeably different from previous bear cycles: the decline is sharper and more decisive, and the rebound is also stronger and more resistant to falling, especially clearly reflected on the monthly chart.
In every rebound process, obvious fund outflows can be seen, and genuine buying pressure is not strong, a typical trap for false breakout.
Bitcoin is still in a high-level oscillation and accumulation phase. As the oscillation time lengthens, the top formation will gradually become apparent, and a significant correction is likely to follow. Tonight’s CPI data further validates this logic.
April CPI is expected at 3.7%, actual release at 3.8%, again exceeding expectations. The previous month’s CPI had already risen sharply, mainly related to US-Iran geopolitical conflicts, but continuous inflation is not a positive sign.
After the US-Iran conflict, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil supply disruptions, with oil prices soaring from around $55 per barrel before the war to the current $100 per barrel, nearly doubling. Although both sides have ceased fire, negotiations have not been reached, and the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, maintaining high oil prices. The rapid transmission of high oil prices affects transportation, food, manufacturing, and other sectors, directly driving overall US inflation higher, reinforcing expectations of “high inflation + Fed’s difficulty in quickly easing,” which puts clear pressure on risk assets.
Market liquidity also does not support Bitcoin to continue rising; recent trading volume has been shrinking continuously, and the market lacks genuine incremental buying.
The early May rebound was essentially a short squeeze rather than driven by funds: on one hand, there was a strong consensus of bearishness beforehand, accumulating a large number of shorts; on the other hand, the main players pushed prices up to sweep liquidity above, deliberately creating the illusion that $60k is the bottom, inducing retail FOMO to chase and buy high.
Objectively, $60k is just a phase rebound low point after the January peak of $98k, not the start of a trend reversal.
Historically, Bitcoin experiences a major fluctuation roughly every four months. This cycle aligns well: after peaking at $98k in mid-January, a correction began at the end of the month, and now in mid-May, we are at an important turning point, with a large-scale correction possibly starting at any time.

As for altcoins, perhaps a different approach can be taken!
When altcoins top out, avoid highly controlled projects as much as possible. These coins excel at drawing lines on data: every correction looks like a collapse, inducing short positions, but they often suddenly surge, trapping shorts at high levels. Typical examples include Rave Siren earlier and the recent Lab. These projects have extremely low alpha trading volume, almost no genuine selling pressure, but their contract trading volume remains high for a long time. Main players manipulate the market with low selling pressure, mainly harvesting funding rates, while using candlestick and funding data to induce retail traders to short!
Based on this, for the “monster coin” LAB, you can try a different approach!!! Currently, LAB’s movement is very volatile; both long and short positions are easily stopped out or liquidated by the main players, with huge fluctuations, making it hard to hold. Instead, consider a different strategy: directly buy some spot on Alpha. The current price is around 4.56, and reaching 10 is not a big problem. Holding spot at least makes it easier to double your investment. The characteristic of controlled coins is that spot selling pressure is extremely low; once the main players start to push up, it often rises quickly and fiercely. Of course, the risk of monster coins is always there, so it’s recommended to participate with a small position.

The above is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!