#BTC Perpetual contracts this year are easier than last year. Why do we say this year’s perpetuals are easier than last year? The core reason lies in volatility theory. In prior years, normal market fluctuations were around 4%, larger moves around 8%, and extreme moves around 14%. Taking a 100,000 integer threshold as an example, the usual daily high-low range is roughly 4,000 points; with fundamentals-driven markets, it can reach 8,000 points. Extreme market moves are even rarer—typically only once every half year or more. The greater the volatility, the more room there is to capture points, but risk rises at the same time—making the market harder to control and leaving a very low margin for error.

As the overall market economy weakens, the “big pancake” once halved and fell to 60k. Although it has now returned to the 80k range, overall volatility has clearly tightened. Daily volatility has dropped from around 4% in previous years to about 3% now. The range of oscillation has been compressed, and extreme trends featuring big ups and downs no longer occur at will; sharp spikes and deep “washouts” have been significantly reduced. Although the single-day point range you can capture is now smaller, the risk has been reduced accordingly as well.

The price action is more orderly, the timing is easier to grasp, the margin for error is higher, and stability has improved—so it’s naturally easier to achieve consecutive wins.