5.12 Market Analysis

Market News:

The UK 20-year government bond yield reaches 5.734%, and the 30-year reaches 5.794%, the highest in nearly 28 years; the US and Iran remain in a war of words with no significant progress.

Tonight’s data release: 8:30 PM — US April CPI

Trading Data:

Hyperliquid: Brother Maji BTC liquidation price 77,965, ETH liquidation price 2,250, can serve as a guiding reference for the dark light indicator 😂

Coinglass: Dense liquidation zones for longs in the past 48 hours: BTC — 80,056-80,324; ETH — 2,235-2,246, 2,214-2,222

US Stocks:

Still maintaining the speculation from May 9th about this week: the market is likely to go up first and then down, after reaching a new high, a trend reversal begins, with a shooting star on the weekly chart.

Technical Analysis:

BTC: Over the past three days, it has been fluctuating narrowly within the resistance zone of 80,598-82,656. The 12-hour chart is gradually forming an M-top structure. Tonight’s focus is on the neckline support; if it breaks effectively, the market may officially enter a downtrend channel. The neckline and support zone of 78,156-79,257, along with the 12H MA30, resonate, providing some support. Short-term traders can consider deploying short positions here: if the price declines slowly, consider going long around 79,257 with a 200 USD buffer; in case of sharp drops, look at the lower support zone, around 78,156 ±200 USD for short entries.

Currently, BTC’s pattern remains a complex formation of short-term moving average resistance and medium-to-long-term moving average support, meaning there is downward pressure in the short term, but medium and large cycle moving averages support upward. Within this zone, there’s no need to expect large gains or losses; take profits when the trend is favorable. Only a break of the pattern and confirmation of the trend will define the overall structure.

ETH: The daily MA120 and 12H MA250 form a mountain-like resistance, firmly suppressing ETH. Even if broken, it doesn’t form a space for a quick surge, and a sharp drop could follow. The previous high at 2348-2390 was resisted and fell back, indicating significant supply pressure in this zone. Similar to BTC, the supply zone and short-term MA resistance, combined with demand zones and medium-to-large cycle MA support, form a complex pattern, gradually compressing the oscillation range, signaling a potential direction. ETH’s trend remains weak; it has reached the support zone of 2,236-2,273, resonating with the 4H MA250. I believe this support may cause a slight rebound but will likely be broken.

Therefore, short-term traders can consider buying near the lower edge of this zone, around 2,236, expecting a slow rebound. In case of a sharp decline, consider entering around the next support zone near 2,204, with limited upside potential.

Overall view — Tonight and tomorrow’s data releases, Wosh taking office as Fed Chair, and Trump’s visit to China could trigger a breakout. ETH continues downward, which doesn’t necessarily mean a big rebound in ETH or BTC in the short term; both may decline simultaneously, with BTC’s decline gradually catching up to ETH.

Support and resistance zones are provided below. The 4H short-term moving averages have already turned downward, so beware of sharp drops after tonight’s data. I believe support from the lower moving averages and demand zones formed during the previous rally still exists. Therefore, trading can still focus on short positions at key levels mentioned above.

Under trading bias, I personally hold trend short positions on BTC and ETH because the upside potential is limited. The US stock market also faces the risk of a sharp correction at any time. Although there are many rebound opportunities after declines, if you cannot monitor the market actively, it’s better not to go long easily. The upside space is very small compared to the downside, with a clear double-top pattern forming, which could lead to a trap for both bulls and bears.

The market is at a critical point between bulls and bears, with medium and short-term cycles compressing toward the middle. The trend will soon become clear. Conservative traders can wait for the trend to establish before acting. However, given strong trading biases, I still believe the market will move downward.

Support and Resistance Zones:

BTC

Support: 78,156-79,257, 76,588-77,601, 74,806-75,500, 73,024-74,345

Resistance: 80,598-82,656, 83,590-85,140, 86,380-87,273

ETH

Support: 2,236-2,273, 2,160-2,204, 2,088-2,140, 1,990-2,041

Resistance: 2,348-2,390, 2,423-2,475, 2,550-2,616