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Whales Just Placed an $832 Million Bet on an Ethereum Price Drop—Here’s Why

### Ethereum Price
ETHUSD
has fallen 3.6% since May 10, dropping deep into a downtrend channel that has persisted since April 17. Whales are taking advantage of this decline to buy up ETH worth $832 million.

Derivative positioning indicates strength before that breakdown occurred due to short-covering, not because there was a buildup of fresh long positions. This gives whales the opportunity to enter with low leverage. But long-term holders are actually reducing accumulation by nearly 80% since late April.

## Whales Buy $832 Million Worth of ETH as the Price Falls

The supply of Ethereum held by whales outside exchanges tells a story that isn’t visible on the price chart. Whale wallets have continued adding ETH during the recent breakdown. This method increased from 124.69 million ETH to around 125.05 million over that period, up by 360,000 ETH.

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At the current ETH price, those 360,000 tokens are worth roughly $832 million in market value.

The bigger question is why they’re so confident. The answer lies in derivative data.

## Ethereum Derivatives Prove Optimism Is Not Backed by Excessive Leverage

From the derivatives side, this is why whales are willing to accumulate during a breakdown. Ethereum open interest in perpetual futures declined from $12.46 billion on May 7 to $11.98 billion on May 12. That’s a drop of about $480 million.

Ethereum’s funding rate—which is the periodic payment between longs and shorts on perpetual swaps—remains fairly high at around 0.012%. On May 7, this rate was at 0.010%.

This combination provides a clue. Falling open interest but a still-high funding rate indicates that shorts have already closed their positions, not because there are lots of new long positions with high leverage.

In short, the optimism in the market is real, but it’s still conservative. There are no piles of fresh long positions that could easily be liquidated in large numbers.

This is the kind of condition whales usually look for. Thin leverage stacks mean external shocks won’t trigger a chain liquidation rally. However, not all on-chain groups agree with the whales’ view.

## Ethereum Holders Cut Accumulation by Nearly 80% Since Late April

Changes in Ethereum holders’ net positions track the daily ETH held by long-term wallets. Typically, this metric monitors wallets that have held ETH for more than 155 days.

The highest reading occurred on April 27 with 383,128 ETH. By May 11, that number had fallen to 77,675 ETH, or down about 80%.

Long-term holders have not completely stopped accumulating. They still buy net, but the pace is now far slower. The spot buying rate from this group is now only about one-fifth of the rate at the end of April.

The most likely cause is the high funding rate, similar to the optimism signal on the derivatives side. Holders see funding above 0.01% as a warning that the market is too heavily reliant on long positions. As a result, they’re reluctant to chase the rally further. This is what triggers the split in opinion. Whales see open interest falling and say optimism remains healthy. Holders see a high funding rate and say the market is too overheated.

Whoever is right will determine the next direction, and the chart will be the deciding factor.

## Ethereum Holds at $2,269 Support as a Trap Point

Ethereum is trading at $2,311 on the daily chart, down 1.2% in a day. The price action structure is still within the downtrend channel that has held since the peak on April 17.

Whale support keeps the price above $2,298, which is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the larger decline.

If the daily close clearly falls below $2,298, then $2,269—the 0.618 Fibonacci level—becomes the next support. This would mean only about a 2% drop that day.

Below $2,269, the levels $2,227 and $2,174 will be tested. If it falls below $2,174, the price could break through the lower trendline of the downtrend channel and risk dropping further.

On the upside, if the price breaks back above $2,327, the chart returns to a neutral position. Movement above $2,363 will shift the structure toward neutral-bullish, with a short-term target at $2,422.

Ethereum’s current price is caught between whale buying below and holder caution above. The $2,298 level is the boundary between a slow recovery pattern or a 2% decline that opens the door to the next support at $2,269.