May 12th, US April CPI Data's Multi-Dimensional Impact Analysis on the Crypto Market

Key conclusion: This CPI expectation has been significantly raised to 3.7%, with the negative factors already priced in in advance. Even if the data exceeds expectations and rises, the downside space is extremely limited; if it falls below expectations, it will directly trigger a rebound in the crypto market, combined with the positive news of Trump’s visit to China tomorrow, potentially breaking through previous highs in one move.

The core background and market expectations for this CPI data

This CPI is the biggest macro catalyst this week besides Trump’s visit to China. Market expectations are extremely pessimistic:
Unadjusted CPI annual rate: previous 3.3%, expected 3.7%, a sharp increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value, the largest expected increase in nearly 6 months
Seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate: previous 0.9%, expected 0.6%, although it has fallen back from the previous value, it remains in a high range
Reasons for the expectation increase: mainly driven by the surge in crude oil prices caused by the US-Iran conflict in April and the sticky housing inflation, with the market already pricing in the negative impact of "inflation rebound"
Key judgment: The current crypto market price has already incorporated the CPI YoY expectation of 3.7%. As long as the final data does not exceed 3.8%, there will be no systemic crash; if it falls below 3.5%, it will be a major positive.

Precise strategy

✅ Before CPI release (current - 20:30)
Maintain existing positions without opening new orders or moving stop-losses
Reserve 30% cash, ready to add positions after CPI data is released based on the situation
✅ CPI below / in line with expectations
Replenishment range: BTC 80,800-81,000, $ETH 2280-2290
Profit-taking plan:
BTC: first target 81,700-81,900, second target 82,400-82,600
ETH: first target 2,330-2,340, second target 2,355-2,365

✅ CPI above expectations
Immediately reduce positions: halve BTC if it drops below 80,500, halve ETH if it drops below 2,280
Bottom-fishing timing: buy back all reduced parts when BTC drops to 80,000-80,200, ETH drops to 2,270-2,280
Unified stop-loss: $BTC drop below 79,800 for BTC, drop below 2,270 for ETH
Core summary
The negative impact of this CPI data has been fully digested by the market, and the risk of decline is much smaller than the opportunity for rise. Even if the data exceeds expectations, it’s only a short-term correction and will not change the medium-term upward trend; if it falls below expectations, it will resonate with the positive news of Trump’s visit to China tomorrow, directly pushing the crypto market to break previous highs.
This is the last moment before dawn. Control your positions well, patiently wait for the data to land, and regardless of the outcome, have a clear response plan. #美国4月CPI今晚20:30揭晓 ​​​#特朗普5月13日访华