#Gate广场五月交易分享

Position approaching 1 million Bitcoin! MicroStrategy resumes accumulating, is the institutional-level "HODL path" upgrading again?

MicroStrategy Strategy has bought another 535 Bitcoin, this time spending about $43 million, with an average price of $80,340 per Bitcoin!

According to the SEC 8-K filing released yesterday, May 11, this batch of Bitcoin was purchased between May 4 and 10, after Strategy paused buying for a week and resumed increasing holdings.

Meanwhile, including this purchase, Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings have risen to 818,869 coins, worth over $66 billion at current prices—about 4.3% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply worldwide—this ratio can no longer be ignored!

If Strategy maintains its current quarterly Bitcoin purchase pace of about $7.3 billion, it will buy nearly $30 billion worth of Bitcoin in 2026 alone, surpassing the record of $22 billion annually in 2024 and 2025.

This sustained buying volume itself creates a hidden anchor in the market, with the market knowing there is a fixed buyer, so when prices dip to a certain level, buy orders will support the price.

STRC stalls at the ATM top

But the way this batch of 535 Bitcoin was purchased is worth a closer look!

The official documents only disclose proceeds from the ATM (at-the-market) equity offering program, without detailed breakdowns of STRC preferred stock contributions. This contrasts with Strategy’s recent public narrative—Saylor has been pushing to use STRC as the main financing tool, reducing reliance on MSTR common stock.

The turning point is that STRC’s performance itself cooled significantly in May!

Before that, on April 14, STRC set a single-day trading volume record of about $1.57 billion, when Strategy used this tool to buy approximately 14,834 Bitcoin, making it the most aggressive purchase day of the year.

However, in May, STRC took over a week longer than usual to return to the $100 par value—this $100 is a critical threshold because STRC uses a floating interest rate mechanism, and only when the stock price approaches par value can Strategy issue new shares at full face value, enabling optimal fundraising conditions.

It wasn’t until May 9 that STRC finally touched par again. With the ex-dividend window in May almost over, the probability of STRC experiencing a surge in trading volume to tens of billions of dollars like in April seems low.

This also means that during the window when STRC’s financing channels are blocked, Strategy can only rely on MSTR’s ATM offering of common stock as its main funding channel.

Therefore, Strategy’s total Bitcoin purchases this year could reach $30 billion—whether this is achievable largely depends on whether STRC can regain momentum.

The "Never Sell" crack

The most sensational event in April wasn’t any purchase, but a statement made by Strategy CEO Saylor during the Q1 earnings call:

"We might sell some Bitcoin to pay dividends, to send a signal to the market." As soon as this was said, MSTR’s stock fell 4% after hours, and Bitcoin briefly dropped below $81,000.

Moreover, the market’s probability of Strategy selling Bitcoin by the end of the year on Polymarket jumped from 10% to 87%, indicating market expectations that Strategy will sell Bitcoin before year-end.

This is the first public loosening of Saylor’s "never sell" persona. Borrowing to buy Bitcoin, expecting it to appreciate, then selling Bitcoin to pay dividends—this seems like a rational cycle rather than a surrender.

But regardless, this shift is real. Strategy’s preferred stock series (STRK with 8% annual interest, STRF with 10%) requires paying about $1.5 billion in dividends annually, which is a real fixed expense.

For shareholders who believe in Bitcoin’s long-term value, selling coins to pay interest and diluting equity are two entirely different things. The former involves cutting into existing holdings, while the latter involves issuing new shares to finance dividend payments.

The latter will truly dilute the Bitcoin per share ratio. Saylor clearly wants to distinguish these two paths, but the market needs time to digest this signal.

Hard conditions behind the 1 million Bitcoin figure

Strategy’s holdings of 818,869 Bitcoin are already 18 times larger than Twenty One Capital (which holds 43,514), the second-largest holder. But Saylor has explicitly said that reaching 1 million Bitcoin is the real milestone.

To hit that number, about 181,131 more Bitcoin are needed. Based on the remaining roughly 7.5 months, this requires purchasing about 24,151 Bitcoin per month.

Of course, in April, monthly purchases once reached 34,164 Bitcoin, indicating the upper limit of capacity is well above the recent pace. But with STRC financing currently blocked, maintaining such a high speed faces structural pressure.

Strategy still holds substantial available funds, with over $19.46 billion worth of capacity remaining in the STRC market issuance plan, and the preferred stock series STRD, STRF, STRK all still have ammunition.

If STRC can be reactivated, the goal of buying 24,151 Bitcoin per month isn’t out of reach. But if Bitcoin drops below $70,000, bond financing costs will rise sharply, and the purchase pace may have to slow—this is the next threshold to watch.

Currently, the company’s cost basis is around $75,543 per Bitcoin, with an internal profit rate of about 6.3%.

This figure may just be on paper; the real gamble is: in an era of continuously overdrawn sovereign debt credit, how long can the game of reconstructing corporate balance sheets with highly volatile assets last?