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1）Core CPI ≥2.8% or Overall ≥3.8% (Above expectations, bearish)
• Market interpretation: Inflation rebound exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve is more hawkish, June rate cuts are basically off the table, and there are even hints of “higher interest rates for longer.”
• For cryptocurrencies: Bearish. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields jump, funds flow out of BTC/ETH, short-term drops of 3–8% are likely, with altcoins falling more.
2）Core 2.7%, Overall 3.7% (In line with expectations, neutral leaning weak)
• Market interpretation: Inflation rebounds as expected, no change in rate cut expectations (bet on September), but no additional easing surprises.
• For cryptocurrencies: Neutral leaning weak, slightly bearish. Difficult to see a strong rebound, mainly volatile, high levels prone to pullbacks, increased fluctuations.
3）Core ≤2.6% or Overall ≤3.6% (Below expectations, bullish)
• Market interpretation: Inflation rebound is weaker than expected, rate cut expectations advance (probability rises in June), the dollar weakens, liquidity loosens.
• For cryptocurrencies: Bullish. BTC/ETH rise 2–7% in the short term, altcoins follow the rally, sentiment improves.